'Moscow's hybrid warfare may prompt NATO to consider the common defence clause'

Russia's hybrid warfare increases the risk that NATO may have to consider whether to trigger the mutual defence clause, Article 5 of the Treaty. This was stated by German intelligence chief Bruno Kahl at an event organised by the international relations think tank Dgap in Berlin.

"The increasing Russian armed forces means that a direct military confrontation with NATO becomes a viable option for the Kremlin," Kahl added on 27 November. According to Kahl, Moscow wants to show that the Atlantic Alliance will not trigger the common defence clause and will not remain united. High-ranking Russian officials, he explained, doubt NATO's resilience and this increases the risk of confrontation. Already in the past, the German intelligence chief had stated before the Bundestag Control Committee that Russia might launch an attack against NATO countries by the end of the decade.

Kahl added that Moscow is massively damaging Western satellite systems and is generally carrying out sabotage acts of various kinds. The service chief said that an escalation is to be expected, to the point where the question of activating Article 5 could arise. Kahl emphasised that the Kremlin sees Germany as an adversary, already putting the two countries in a situation of direct confrontation.

In July, an incendiary package exploded in a Dhl container at Leipzig airport. According to Western intelligence services, it was a test by Russian agents, who planned to plant similar bombs on flights to the USA. On Monday 25, a Dhl transport plane that had just taken off from Leipzig crashed, investigations are pointing towards a technical accident, but the first suspicions immediately turned to Russia. This is a sign of the strong fear of a possible change of pace in the hybrid war that the Kremlin has been waging for some time, with disinformation, hacker attacks and interference in election campaigns, to destabilise and favour the rise of parties that are more benevolent towards Moscow and more critical towards NATO and support for Ukraine. In Germany, with different nuances, the ultra-right movement, Alternative für Deutschland, and the red-brown populists of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance are moving along these lines.

Germany goes to the vote in February. In an interview with the public broadcaster Ard, Kahl himself recalled that 'influencing the public debate in the run-up to elections is a discipline the Russians are very good at'. The aim is to 'strengthen those who fall for Putin's propaganda'. According to Kahl, 'we should prepare for times like we have known since the Cold War, when threats can become real'.