Air traffic

Iata, air cargo slumps in March in the Gulf region (-54.3%)

Globally, the sector fell by 4.8%. Traffic in Europe and Asia was good. Rising fuel prices and availability weighed heavily

by Mara Monti

2 May 2026

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Air cargo traffic collapsed in March in the Gulf countries as a result of the closure of airspace in the aftermath of the start of the Epic Fury, the US and Israeli attack on Iran. In the first month of the conflict, demand for air cargo services fell by 54.3% compared to the same month last year, the lowest level since the Covid crisis. The capacity of Gulf airlines, forced to ground planes for security reasons, also fell by 52 per cent. These are the latest figures published by Iata, the airline association, which notes that in March, global cargo traffic fell by 4.8% after a very positive first two months of the year for the sector.

Demand for the United States is also down 1.2%, while all other areas are growing, starting with Europe +2.2%, Africa +7%, the Caribbean and Latin America +1.8% to Asia +5.4% excluding the Gulf countries.

According to Iata Director Willie Walsh, underlying demand is still strong and there are no signs of a recession in the world economy, while the industry has demonstrated in this downturn 'the necessary capacity to support the global supply chain, which is adapting to geopolitical, tariff and operational tensions. All eyes are on supply and fuel prices,' Walsh continued, 'which are expected to test the industry's resilience.

In the past two months, the crisis that initially seemed limited to the Gulf area spread like wildfire as a consequence of the stratospheric fuel price increase of 106.6% in March on a year-on-year basis, in parallel with a 43.1% increase in crude oil prices and a 320% surge in refining margins.

To this increase in costs we must also add the soaring freight rates on Euro-Asian routes: spot rates from South Asia to Europe have risen by up to 105%, with increases of 87% from Europe to the Middle East and 84% from South Asia to the Middle East, according to Xeneta, the analysis agency specialising in shipping and air cargo. Tensions point to a rapid contraction of available capacity. With the closure of Hormuz, the crisis has shifted to the availability of fuel as around 30% of jet fuel bound for Europe passes through the Strait.

Faced with the closure of airspace in the Gulf, airlines have had to find other corridors such as Central Asia with technical stops for long-haul flights or more direct Asia-Europe services, depending on traffic rights, airspace availability and operational constraints. The use of these routes lengthens the air freight journey with cargo costs up to 95% for some routes, a growth linked, according to Drewry Airfreight Insight, to the combination of reduced available capacity and increased fuel costs.

These were not the prospects for the year of air cargo, which in February had seen world demand grow by 11.2% measured in tonne-kilometres, with an acceleration of traffic in the Middle East of 13.2% according to Iata. The attack of 28 February totally changed the outlook for traffic and in the case of Italia aggravated an already difficult situation. A possible truce introduces elements of potential stabilisation, but uncertainty remains. Xeneta points out that the resumption of operations depends not only on the reopening of the airspace and the Strait, but also on operational variables . Companies need to rebuild networks, restore customer confidence, and address insurance restrictions still in place for transiting the Gulf area. Restarting may be difficult and there are now fears of a global energy shock similar to the 1970s, undesirable developments in terms of trade volumes, shipping costs and retail prices.

'The latest IATA data confirm how air cargo is today strongly exposed to global geopolitical shocks,' commented Alessandro Albertini, president of ANAMA Associazione Nazionale Agenti Merci Aeree (National Association of Air Cargo Agents). 'For Italia and Europe, this scenario reinforces the urgency of diversifying logistics corridors, investing in innovation and operational resilience, and mitigating the energy risk, which today represents one of the main factors of instability for air cargo.