Iata, net profits to record $41 billion in 2026
The airline association expects revenue growth of 4.5 per cent with ancillary approaching that of cargo
by Mara Monti (Geneva)
Key points
The airline industry will continue to grow and in 2026 net profits are forecast at $41 billion for the entire industry from $39.5 billion in 2025, reaching a new record high, but with a net margin of 3.9 per cent unchanged from last year, according to forecasts by Iata, the international airline association. Total revenue is forecast at USD 1,053 billion, up 4.5% from last year when it stood at USD 1,008 billion, and with a load factor (capacity) at 83.8%.
Europe more profitable than US due to tariffs
Europe ends the year surpassing the United States in terms of profitability, placing itself behind only the companies of the Middle East, defined as the profit champions: a price the USA pays for its tariffs policy. The sector appears to be healthy, but plagued by problems that limit its profitability: from airport costs, to rising taxes, to delays in aircraft delivery, which Iata estimates will weigh 11 billion dollars this year.
Iata threatens legal action over delays in aircraft deliveries
"It is an unsustainable situation," emphasised Iata Director General Willie Walsh, pointing the finger at the engine manufacturers, who "continue to make profit margins of over 20% while the airlines have to bear these costs". Walsh went so far as to threaten legal action if the situation is not resolved. No wonder Airbus's decision to revise its 2025 delivery target downwards from 820 to 790 aircraft, however 'it is disappointing' for carriers because it means having fewer aircraft in fleets with increased leasing costs and the use of older aircraft for longer periods. "Boeing is getting better at meeting commitments while we are seeing a decline in confidence in Airbus," Walsh added.
The American manufacturer had been forced to limit production of the 737 Max due to quality problems that emerged with the Alaska Airlines accident, in which a door had detached during take-off. While Airbus a fortnight ago had to quickly update the software of 6,000 aircraft of the A320 family and inspect about 600 aircraft for potentially defective panels.
Anchillary revenue approaches cargo
Overall, the snapshot of the sector shows a resilient demand for air transport, with Europe managing to record better financial results in 2025: passenger revenue continues to dominate turnover, with ancillary revenue (checked baggage, reserved seats) growing, approaching cargo revenue. "These two items are set to reach a similar size, but will obviously still be far outstripped by passenger revenues," pointed out Marie Owens Thomsen, Iata economist. European low-cost carriers continue to expand at double-digit rates and outperform full-service carriers in terms of profit margin.
