If China suffers from European weakness

The work of the China Executive Leadership Programme is currently drawing to a close in Cambridge. For two weeks now, the programme has been bringing the top executives of the People's Republic's companies to the lecture halls of this prestigious English university to meet with the top managers of a small number of Western multinationals and an even smaller group of European academics. From the outset, the character of these closed-door meetings was the need to reflect - together and in a spirit of mutual understanding - on developments in the global economy, grasping the risks and opportunities that open up in such a closely interrelated world. This year, however, Trump's violent reappearance on the world stage has made these direct confrontations even more necessary. It becomes crucial for all of us to understand to what extent the fierce instability generated by the US presidency's constant twists and turns is actually changing the very paradigm of global relations, and to what extent it is possible to rebuild a framework of mutual reliability, in a context in which all international institutions, starting with the UN, appear to be constantly displaced and thus weakened to the point of exhaustion.

If the threats shouted to the four winds by Trump are more and more evidence of the weakness and structural decline of the consolidated American industry, while the great digital leaders are now moving out of the borders of that great country, the Chinese presence on the markets, but also on the world political scene, is increasingly marked by a technological supremacy, confirmed by the evident fact that half of the industrial patent applications filed worldwide in 2024 were to be assigned to Chinese companies, while those attributable to the United States barely reached 15%, leaving the various European countries scattered change. This achievement on the part of China has been patiently pursued over the past thirty years, starting when China was attracting low-wage American manufacturers, well prepared to leave decrepit and turbulent Detroit to occupy that 'underdeveloped' but so 'controlled' country.

China's tough response to Trump's threats, centred on blocking exports to the USA of rare earths necessary for the digital industries, but also for the entire defence sector - an act that immediately forced the swaggering President to seek milder agreements - is based on a long-term strategy that sees the PRC making the most of its availability of minerals that are today precious, but also increasingly ensuring massive support for research and higher education, in order to directly utilise those riches that have hitherto been hidden. On the other hand, the British multinationals present at this meeting emphasised the UK's negotiating capacity, which, at the modest price of 10 per cent - to be passed on to transatlantic consumers as soon as possible - has driven the American buffalo away, returning to their long-term ambitions.

And where is Europe? asked the Chinese managers, while their British colleagues dodged the question, declaring themselves disinterested. Where is the European Union, unable either to return the irritating threat to sender, or to disarm it by sitting down at a table to close the issue as soon as possible? Europe's fragmentation and inability to make decisions is becoming a problem for the whole world, starting with China itself, which does not want to return to a world reduced to a boxing ring in which the champion - the US - and the challenger on duty, yesterday Japan, today China itself - fight until the final knockout for a world crown, which is now more evanescent than ever in a time of such rapid technological and social transformation. It is time to rebuild, starting precisely from our higher education institutions, transnational, or rather transcontinental, networks of collaboration, to increase mutual understanding, but also to develop a new economy aimed at grasping the many emerging global needs and thus avoid the slide, unfortunately evident today, towards ever more dangerous dead-end conflicts. It is time for the European Union to take an initiative that not only stands up to the arrogant and unhinged initiative of the current US Presidency, but also to keep the dialogue open and seek alliances with all those in the world who want to find their way back to peace and sustainable development. It is time, but the clock is ticking, particularly for us old Europeans.