Opinions

If the sentiment of Italians wanes

4' min read

4' min read

The public and political discussion about the European Union, also due to the recent defence proposals, has different accents, alternating between distancing itself from European policies, the need to reform the EU structure, and the desire to give it a new impetus within the radical transformations taking place in the technological-productive, as well as geopolitical, spheres.

Our country, as is well known, has been going through difficulties for some time now, largely generated by a public debt that is among the highest in Europe (and not only there), but also by international competition and concern about the impact of the duties imposed by Trump.

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To what extent is EU membership seen as an opportunity for Italy? Or, on the contrary, is it a hindrance? We put these questions to the Italians (Community Research&Analysis for Federmeccanica) and the results largely confirm those of the latest Eurobarometer survey. Italians are 'pro-European, but not too much', with a sentiment that is still positive, but which has waned over time.

For the majority, the EU is an indispensable asset (22.7%) or at least an opportunity, even if it would require reflection on its functioning (36.3%). Overall, therefore, 59.0% of the respondents show a generally favourable sentiment towards the Union and see a positive and helpful role for our country.

On the other hand, a minority, albeit a conspicuous one, considers our membership a disadvantage for the economy (10.1%) and 17.8% perceive it as an obstacle, so much so that an exit path similar to the one taken by Great Britain (Brexit) should be undertaken. Thus, about a quarter of Italians (27.9%) show a negative orientation towards the EU.

A third party (13.1%) is unable to give a precise evaluation.

Thus, it can be argued that for the majority of Italians, the EU is still an essential reference point and an opportunity. But the health it enjoys in the collective imagination is not so flourishing and presents, for a considerable proportion of respondents, albeit a minority, a widespread malaise to which attention should be paid.

A little over 20 years have passed since the introduction of the euro, the single currency, which - not only symbolically - has been a key element in economic and social integration. Certainly, the first years of its introduction were marked by critical issues. However, today, especially for the younger generations, it represents the truly single currency. After some time, what is the balance that Italians make of the introduction of the euro?

In this case, the criticalities outweigh the positives. On the whole, 41.7% believe that the euro has only produced advantages (7.1%) and, beyond the initial complications, has been necessary for the construction of the European Union (34.6%). Conversely, the area of contrariety is significantly higher (53.5%). For the majority of Italians, the disadvantages generated by the euro outweighed the advantages (38.9%) and a minority would like to see a return to the Lira (14.6%). The number of those unable to express a full opinion here drops to 4.8%.

To summarise the orientations, we have added up the answers to the previous questions. In this way, four profiles emerged that correspond to as many visions towards the European Union institution and the euro.

The most conspicuous group is made up of the 'euro-convinced', i.e. those who have firmly expressed an opinion in favour of both the EU and the euro, albeit with some critical thoughts: 40.5%. It is a group that is gradually thinning out over time if we observe that in 2014 it consisted of 63.6% of Italians.

This group is approached by the 'euro-enthusiasts' (20.5%): in this case, they are the Italians who look favourably on the European Union, but express some perplexity about its construction and about the single currency considered a sort of 'necessary evil' (20.5%). This is a sentiment that is present across the surveyed universe and is growing (it was 13.9% in 2014).

A similar measure is found among those who express more perplexity than conviction about the EU and the euro. These are the 'Eurosceptics' (22.0%) for whom Italy's membership of the European Union is mostly a disadvantage and the balance of the euro currency leans more towards disfavour than appreciation. This set doubles the one recorded ten years ago (10.8% in 2014).

The minority group is made up of the 'anti-euro' (17.0%), i.e. those who strongly oppose the EU, wish for an 'Italexit' and a return to the Lira. Such a prospect attracts a time-varying, but nonetheless not marginal group.

Thus, an overall positive and favourable orientation towards the European Union continues to prevail among Italians (61.0%), although it is declining over time (it was 77.5% in 2014). Conversely, there is an area of malaise that has veins mostly of distrust and scepticism (22.0%), but also of open opposition and a desire for a return to the past (17.0%), orientations that on the whole are increasing (39.0%, it was 22.5% in 2014). The risk for the EU, in the absence of a new project identity and a political and institutional construction in step with the times, is that of suffering a 'tilted plane syndrome'.

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