If the mortgage covers more than 80%, 74% of the houses are bought at a discount compared to the valuation

74% of homes purchased with high loan-to-value mortgages - that is, those covering more than 80% of the value of the property - were purchased at a lower price than the valuation. This is what emerges from Qualis Credi Risk's Observatory that analyses the dynamics of the Italian credit market in the period 2023-2025, with a specific focus on real estate transactions financed with high loan-to-value mortgages.
The analysis takes into consideration the actual purchase price and the appraisal value: two key parameters for the granting of credit since the maximum mortgage amount is usually calculated on the lower of the two. The difference that can emerge between these values is a reflection of market dynamics and is influenced by factors such as historical momentum and geographical area, but also by broader trends such as migration flows, economic trends and the 'green' or 'brown' categorisation assigned to properties.

Over the last three years, the gap between these two parameters has progressively narrowed: in the overall market, it has gone from -8.5 per cent to -7.3 per cent, while for sales financed with high loan-to-value mortgages, the change was from -6.8 per cent to -5.7 per cent. This confirms a stable differential of between 1.6 per cent and 1.7 per cent between the average variance observed for the market as a whole and that observed for mortgages with a high loan-to-value ratio.
The tendency to underprice the valuation is more pronounced outside the regional capitals, where in the first half of 2025 the average deviation reaches -6.7% against -4.6% recorded in the main centres. Among the different territorial macro-areas, this difference is more marked in the South of Italy, where it goes from -5.5% in the regional capitals to -7.8% in the rest of the area.

Again in the first half of 2025, the deviation between the two values in the capital cities ranges from -10.1% in Perugia, followed by Naples and Cagliari at -9.0%, to -1.5% in Trento. Looking instead at the regional context, the range goes from -10.4% in Valle D'Aosta and -10.1% in Basilicata to -4.8% in Trentino-Alto Adige and Veneto.
Only in 4% of the transactions analysed is the purchase price higher than the valuation of the property. In more than half of the cases, this figure is concentrated in contexts such as Lombardy (42.4%) and Lazio (11.2%) characterised by strong economic and social vitality, supported by internal migration dynamics that see work and study-related flows in these areas.