If the housing emergency exacerbates the demographic crisis
A marked decline in birth rates is sweeping Europe, sparing no country. It also affects contexts that until a few years ago managed to keep the average number of children per couple close to 2. The concern is twofold. On the one hand there are the complicated consequences to manage: reduction of the labour force, increase in the ratio of elderly to active population, increasing pressure on welfare systems. On the other hand, there is a deeper issue: understanding the causes of the decline and identifying policies capable of reducing the gap between the number of children desired and actually having.
In France, for example, surveys continue to show an average desire for more than 2 children, while the fertility rate is around 1.6. The fall in birth rates is therefore not simply attributable to a 'crisis of family values', let alone a refusal to have children. But it is also true that the generic declaration of wanting children is less and less predictive of an actual intention to have them.
Having children in advanced societies is a free choice, no longer socially prescribed, and consequently less and less taken for granted. It depends on the objective conditions of the present - work, income, housing, services - but also on a positive vision of the future. The birth of the first child, in particular, has remained the only irreversible event in the transition to adult life in a world full of uncertainties. Understandably, it brings with it a high burden of commitment and responsibility.
Among the various obstacles, one stands out particularly strongly across Europe: access to housing. Over the last fifteen years, according to Eurostat data, the European Union has seen an average increase in house sale prices of over 50% and in rents of over 25%. Large cities, where educational and job opportunities are concentrated, are also the places where the gap between supply and demand is most acute. Suburban or rural areas are more accessible, but offer fewer employment opportunities. This creates a structural tension between work and housing.
The new generations are particularly affected, as also highlighted in the report presented on 3 February by the ABI to the parliamentary commission of enquiry on the economic and social effects of demographic transition. The lower average incomes, the higher incidence of temporary contracts, the lower ability to accumulate savings for an advance on a mortgage (conditions that also hinder access to a supplementary pension) all weigh heavily.
