GDP: IMF revises its forecasts for Italia upwards, to +0.8 per cent this year and +0.6 per cent in 2027

A more extensive revision following Germany and Spain; +1.1 per cent in the eurozone

(By our correspondent Gerardo Graziola)

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - The International Monetary Fund has significantly revised its estimate for Italia’s GDP growth upwards compared with its previous forecast issued in July. In the World Economic Outlook, released this morning from Bangkok, where the Annual Meetings are taking place, there is a slight upward revision to global growth to 3.1 per cent (from +3 per cent three months ago), whilst the Italian economy is forecast to grow by 0.8 per cent this year (+0.5% in the July estimate), with a slowdown in 2027 (+0.6%), although this figure has also been revised upwards by 0.1 percentage points compared with July. The Fund’s 2026 estimate is close to that of the Government (+1%) in the latest Dpfp. In a year characterised, according to the Fund, by two-speed global growth, the revised figure for Italia is better than that for the euro area, which is expected to be +1.1 per cent this year (+0.2 per cent compared with July) and +1.2 per cent next (estimate unchanged). The most significant upward revision concerns Germany’s GDP, which is expected to recover to 1.3 per cent (+0.6 per cent from July) and 1.1 per cent in 2027 (+0.1 per cent).

Spain is stepping on the accelerator: GDP is forecast to grow by 2.5 per cent in 2026 (up 0.4 per cent on July’s forecast) and to slow in 2027 (1.8 per cent, unchanged from July’s forecast), whilst the negative signal comes from France, with a downward revision to the estimates: +0.4 per cent (-0.2 per cent since July) and +0.7 per cent in 2027 (-0.2 per cent).

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