Immigration and demographic decline: Bankitalia proposes ius scholae for integration
In its annual report, the central bank underlines the growing scarcity of workers and the negative effects on the Italian economy. An answer may come from the use of immigrants by strengthening integration policies to attract qualified profiles as well
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Key points
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This is the story of a paradox. Of a problem, demographic decline, and an opportunity, immigration, which could bring the solution closer but which through collective myopia has been turned into another problem. It has nothing to do with political alignments, geographical or cultural location. It is a shared responsibility.
The subject remains taboo in the public debate. It is discussed, mostly in demagogic terms, for security aspects. Yet the situation is well known not only to demographers, academics, businessmen and trade unions, but also to economic and political institutions. In recent weeks, the Bank of Italy, the European Commission and, of course, Istat have spoken about it.
In the final remarks, Governor Fabio Panetta (who had already addressed the issue last year) stated without mincing words: 'The ageing population and low birth rate are bound to profoundly affect the growth potential of the Italian economy. With the country in demographic decline, 5 million workers will be missing by 2040, according to ISTAT. Banca d'Italia, which devotes a long focus to the topic in its annual report, compares the Italian situation with that of the main eurozone economies and sees immigration as part of the answer. "In order to fully reap the benefits of less skilled immigration," argues Bank of Italy, "integration policies should be strengthened. According to international evidence," it adds, "the most effective interventions in this sense concern language training and the creation of certain paths to obtain citizenship, especially for those who complete a cycle of studies in the destination country. It is the ius scholae, proposed months ago also by Forza Italia, put on ice to avoid clashes with the other parties in the majority and made topical again after the failure of the referendum on citizenship.
The paradox of demographic decline and immigration
.While in Germany, France, Spain and the Netherlands in the last 15 years immigration has contributed significantly to population growth, in Italy - Banca d'Italia recalls in its annual report - the arrival of foreign citizens has only partially compensated for the decline in the working-age population (15-64 years). The trend is destined to consolidate. Since 2015, entries have decreased and emigration has increased not only of Italians but also of foreigners, causing a drop in the resident population and in the working-age population. In 2024 alone, half of all expatriates were aged between 18 and 39, and in 2023 (latest available data). Between 2014 and 2023, the net balance of expatriates is minus 97,000.
The importance of immigration for economic growth
."A significant deficit of qualified human capital", writes ISTAT in its annual report. According to the Institute of Statistics' projections, migratory flows over the next 15 years will continue to play a decisive role both demographically and economically, but unlike what has happened since 2000, they will not be sufficient to compensate for the demographic decline in Italy's workforce. Not least because Italy, among the large European countries, is the one where the greatest decline in population is expected. A drop that will be even sharper among the population of working age: -6.8% against Germany's -6.2%. The GDP, the national wealth, will not be unaffected.
