In 2025 Italy leads in real estate turnover in the EU

If in Milan - while waiting for clarification from the legislator - real estate is slowing down due to the judicial investigations that have led to a halt in work on several construction sites, European real estate is once again leveraging Italy - also thanks to the ECB's rate cut - with better fundamentals than many of its European partners. In the two-year period 2024-2025, in fact, our country will lead the EU area in market growth, with real estate sales growing by 3.4% by the end of this year and 5.7% next year. These are the first data emerging from the European Outlook 2025, presented this morning by Scenari Immobiliari, on the occasion of the 32nd Outlook Forum held, as last year, in Rapallo.

"The most difficult period for European and Italian real estate should be drawing to a close," said Mario Breglia, president of Scenari Immobiliari, illustrating the study at the opening of the Forum. The outlook is positive, starting with the residential sector, where demand is strong and the fall in rates will push buying and selling. Demand for offices, especially new ones, is stable and interest in the hospitality sector continues. Logistics is still positive, while the crisis in the commercial sector remains, although it is easing.

According to Scenari's forecasts, 720,000 residential sales are expected in 2024, while around 760,000 exchanges are expected in 2025: an increase of 36% compared to 2020. More than 90 per cent of purchases and sales concern old houses and this pushes up prices for new or better quality homes, which do not require upgrading.

Sales prices are expected to grow by 3.1% nationwide, but in the large cities the variations will be more significant, with Milan leading the top 10 cities with +6.9%, ahead of Venice with +6.5% and Rome with +6%. This is followed by Bergamo (+5.2%), Bologna (+5.1%) and Naples (+5 per cent).

In terms of the various sectors, the positive series of second homes for tourist use continues, driven both by the demand for investment in short-term rentals and by the requests of those turning their holiday home into a primary residence. The hotel market is also on the rise, with an increasingly significant presence of international chains and investments in urban five-star hotels and resorts in the south. The recovery of the tertiary sector is also good, with an expected increase in turnover of 3.7% in 2025. The demand for prime spaces (of high quality and environmental sustainability) is growing. New complexes are also being chosen for better working conditions for employees. Milan still in the lead, but the focus on investments in the capital is increasing. Growth in the logistics sector is still important, especially in the centre south. Investors are active, although yields are falling. The decline in the commercial sector continues, especially in retail in suburban areas, while large-scale distribution remains stable overall.