GDP and consumption are set to improve in 2026

More than double Germany’s GDP growth and a trend in line with that of France. Above all, 2026 could see better performance than last year in terms of wealth generated, thanks to a 0.9 per cent increase, whilst consumption is expected to rise by 1.2 per cent. Lombardy remains the leading region for growth, supported by the regions of central and northern Italia, whilst the South, gripped by lower incomes and a decline in the resident population, will see more modest incomes, and household consumption will remain below the levels of 2007 – the year preceding the Lehman Brothers crisis.

This is what emerges from the analysis carried out by the Confcommercio Research Department on regional GDP and consumption trends for the two-year period 2025–2026. Once again this year, Lombardy is confirmed as Italia’s ‘driving force’, as it is the only region expected to see growth in both GDP and consumption, projected to rise by 1.2 per cent and 1.8 per cent respectively. Next come Trentino-Alto Adige, with GDP up 1% and consumption up 1.5%, and Lazio (up 1% and 1.4%). Bringing up the rear in the GDP rankings are Basilicata and Calabria (both at +0.6 per cent), which also record the weakest performance in terms of consumer spending, at +0.4 per cent and +0.5 per cent respectively. According to retailers, this trend could lead to a widening of the gap between the North and the South. This should be the ‘sine qua non’ condition for making the country’s economic growth more balanced and sustainable.

Then there is the legacy of 2025, which consists of a 0.3 per cent increase in both GDP and consumption, to which is added the momentum of the national economy in the early months of 2026, with an improvement in consumer confidence and GDP. These results have been achieved thanks to a further increase in tourist numbers and a moderate recovery in industrial production. This climate is driving employment levels to their highest points. The surge in inflation caused by the Gulf conflict and energy price rises is having an impact, but core inflation remains at levels close to 2 per cent.

As regards consumption across the peninsula – including, therefore, spending by tourists and excluding spending by residents outside their own region – the South continued to show more modest growth in 2025 compared with the national figure. These factors also influence the estimates for 2026. Looking ahead, the trend towards an improvement in economic activity and consumption forecast for 2026 is expected to be slightly more pronounced in the central and northern regions. For the South, the expected trends are broadly in line with those seen in 2025, leading to a marginal widening of the already substantial disparities between the different areas of the country.