Gold and copper again in 2026. Preferred currencies include the yen and Swiss franc

Commodities and currencies in 2026 should follow the path already marked out this year. This is the opinion of the managers, who among commodities continue to express a majority preference for precious metals, copper and aluminium and have doubts about oil. On the currency market, on the other hand, it is the consensus view that the US dollar remains weak and that the yen could be supported by the Bank of Japan's more restrictive monetary policy, while the outlook on the pound sterling is more mixed, between those who see it as stable and those who see it as potentially falling.

"Among commodities," says Carmine da Fermo, chief investment officer of Sella Sgr, "we highlight gold, which can diversify the portfolio in volatile environments, with high fiscal deficits and falling real rates. In addition, the price of gold is supported by central bank purchases and the weak dollar. We also find copper attractive due to strong demand related to the energy transition, electrification processes and the development of data centres for artificial intelligence. Limited supply creates a risk of a structural deficit, which drives the price. Conversely, we believe that oil should be avoided, which presents a weak scenario due to an oversupply from non-Opec+ producers, in the face of less dynamic industrial demand'.

Currency forecasts indicate a general expected weakening of the US dollar in the medium term, mainly due to Federal Reserve rate cuts and government deficits. This is confirmed by Gianluca Ungari, investment manager for Italy at Vontobel Institutional Clients, who believes that the dollar will continue to depreciate against both developed and emerging market currencies. This is also the view of Stefano Gianti, analyst at Swissquote, who points out: "The picture of the US dollar still shows weakness and the possibility of moderate declines against the euro. There is someone, however, who has a more positive view on the greenback. B Capital Sgr, in fact, sees risks of a pick-up in US inflation over the next year, which could fuel a recovery in the dollar.

The yen also does not look particularly attractive in the short term, but attracts attention and could start to strengthen. L&B Capital Sgr specifies that buying opportunities could arise if growth prospects improve in a scenario of easing inflation. Manuel Pozzi, investment director at M&G Investments, explains that the Japanese currency is currently characterised by structural weakness, but that an eventual regime change on rates could trigger buying and encourage appreciation.

The sterling scenario is more complicated and generates different valuations. In general, the UK's current economic and fiscal structure weighs on the British currency, but some investment houses, such as Nordea, value its interest rates well above those of the eurozone.