Pensions, the life expectancy effect kicks in: in 2029 requirements increase by at least one month
The increase applied in 2027 was supposed to be four months but was limited by law to three. The advance will be triggered in three years
In 2029 retirement requirements are expected to increase by at least one month, due to the maxi rebound of the life expectancy after the Covid that already determined the three months increase to be applied in the two-year period 2027-28. This is certified by the decree of 19 December 2025 of the Ministers of the Economy and Labour.
The Ministerial Decree
The Ministerial Decree, published in the Official Gazette on 30 December, is the one that made official the three-month increase in the next biennial adjustment of requirements. A document that, in its main contents, had already been anticipated, so much so that, through the Budget Law 2026, it was decided to dilute the increase over two years, instead of applying it immediately in its entirety next year: in 2027 the requirements will increase by one month; in 2028 by another two months.
Increases and decreases
The decree explains in detail how the increase for the next two years was arrived at, which is determined by comparing the life expectancy for people aged 65 recorded in 2023-2024 and that of 2021-2022. The difference between the two values was as much as + 8 months. However,
- in 2023 the requirements remained unchanged (the law only provides for upward adjustments, not reductions), but technically they should have been reduced by three months, because life had shortened due to Covid;
- in 2025, the requirements did not change, but technically they should have dropped by one month;
- under Law 205/2017, decreasing changes do not apply but offset any subsequent increases;
- still according to Law 205/2017, the increase from one biennium to the next cannot in any case exceed three months and any excesses apply subsequently;
- it follows that the 8 months of increase referred to 2027-28 were offset by the 4 months (3+1) negative recorded previously;
- the increase in 2027-28 should have been +4 months, but the limit of three imposed by law has been triggered;
- in 2029 we will already start with +1 month of increase left over from this last adjustment (8-3-1=4, applied 3, 1 remains).
Of course, in the meantime, there could be a further, unforeseen shortening of life expectancy, which, in that case, would have to be compensated for by the month's increase that we inherit. And that, at the moment, is certain.
The estimates of the State General Accounting Office
The forecasts drawn up by the Ragioneria Generale dello Stato, moreover, already go further. In fact, the tables contained in the report on the medium-long term trends of the pension and social security system, published in June 2025, already indicated a growth of 3 months from 2027 and for 2029 applied a further increase of a good 2 months. On the basis of these data and this outlook, the margins for further attenuation or neutralisation of future increases in requirements, which the government majority, and the League in particular, did not exclude in the statements of recent weeks made after the severe manoeuvre on pensions packaged with the last Budget law, appear limited.
