Bavarian Nordic is on a roll in Copenhagen, buoyed by its quarterly results, an upward revision to its guidance and a share buyback

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Bavarian Nordic is performing very well on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange, thanks to strong quarterly results, accompanied by an upward revision of its guidance and a new share buy-back programme. In the second quarter, Bavarian’s turnover rose by 23% to 2,034 million Danish kroner. Revenues in the Travel Health segment grew by 45% to 1,022 million kroner, whilst turnover in the Public Preparedness segment (the division dedicated to global health security, which supplies governments and international organisations with strategic stocks and essential vaccines) rose by 6 per cent to 975 million. EBITDA stood at 925 million Danish kroner, with a margin of 45 per cent, whilst the gross margin reached 61 per cent, ‘thanks to a favourable product mix and a solid production performance’.

In the first half of the year, total turnover stood at 3,092 million kronor (+3 per cent), thanks to strong growth in the Travel Health sector, partly offset by a decline in turnover in the Public Preparedness sector, which was ‘in line with expectations’. Half-year EBITDA stood at 1,090 million, with a margin of 35 per cent. “We had an excellent first half of 2026, with record revenues in the Travel Health sector, solid profitability and effective management across our entire production network. Demand for our rabies vaccines remained exceptionally strong in key markets, whilst our chikungunya vaccine continued to gain ground in Europe following several launches during the period. In the public health protection sector, further government contracts for our smallpox/mpox vaccine have strengthened our revenue base and improved visibility beyond 2026, whilst further regulatory progress has expanded the vaccine’s potential use to a wider population”, commented Paul Chaplin, Chairman and CEO of Bavarian Nordic, as quoted in a press release.

“Based on the first-half results, the operational momentum and the commercial agreements secured for the rest of the year, we remain confident that we can achieve our upwardly revised financial forecasts for 2026,” added Chaplin. The company now expects turnover of around 5,700 million kronor, at the upper end of its previous forecast range (5,500–5,700 million). The EBITDA margin is expected to reach around 30 per cent, whereas it was previously estimated at around 28 per cent. In addition, the company announced that, having completed a share buy-back programme worth 500 million kroner in July, it will launch a further buy-back programme in 2026, ‘up to a maximum of 750 million Danish kroner, demonstrating the strength of its balance sheet and its ability to generate cash, whilst preserving the option to pursue value-creating acquisition opportunities’.

Bavarian Nordic also plans to cancel the unused revolving credit facility of 1 billion Danish kroner, obtained from Nordea and Danske Bank in 2023. The Danish company has indicated that it does not require this financing for its operational activities, ‘as part of an ongoing review of its capital structure’, as stated in a press release. Jefferies notes that Bavarian has delivered very solid quarterly results in terms of turnover and profits, driven both by the timing of deliveries coinciding with the rollout of the monkeypox vaccine and by the performance of the Traveller’s Health division. Analysts at the US investment bank believe that the company is undervalued. The historical discount relative to internal valuations persists, fuelled largely by the uncertainty and volatility surrounding the high-margin Public Preparedness sector (i.e. preparedness for public health emergencies), which accounts for around 50 per cent of turnover in 2025. Analysts believe that a significant merger or acquisition would help to reduce this uncertainty. Jefferies maintains its ‘buy’ recommendation, with a target price of 280 kronor, representing a potential upside of 46 per cent.