Dubai's property sector falls on the stock exchange

In the last week, Deyaar, a Dubai-based developer specialising in residential and commercial projects, lost about 15 per cent.

The Dubai real estate market in 2025 has reached historic milestones.

According to data from the Emirates government, there were more than 270,000 transactions, a 20 per cent year-on-year increase for a value equivalent to approximately EUR 215 billion. While real estate investments (new developments) reached the equivalent of about EUR 60 billion.

According to Fitch, real estate prices in Dubai increased by 60 per cent between 2022 and the first quarter of 2025.

In Abu Dhabi, they increased by almost 32 per cent over the same period. For almost 80 per cent, residential purchases are 'on paper'. People buy, therefore, with delivery in 2-3 years. The risk, therefore, is that a flight of capital will block building sites that were supposed to open or will not complete those that are in progress.

Even before the US and Israeli attacks on Iran, however, analysts had sounded the alarm: supply would exceed population growth.

By 2025, the population of the Emirates exceeded 11 million, of which 90% are foreigners.

JPMorgan stated that Dubai's population expansion is unlikely to absorb the 300,000-400,000 new units expected by 2028.

At Cnbc, the founder of Emaar Properties, Mohamed Alabbar, said that "there might be some slowdown", adding that the Emirati real estate sector "does not rely on bank loans", the fundamentals are solid and that "smart capital will continue to invest".

"With a Roi between 8 and 10 per cent," explained Luca Dondi, CEO of Patrigest, "the Emirates already incorporated, before this crisis, the risks of the impetuous growth that characterises emerging markets. The image of a 'safe haven' is now cracked. But much will depend on how long the war will last. If, at the end, there is a repricing phase, there could also be a rush of speculative capital to buy down'.