HelloFresh falls in Frankfurt; cuts full-year forecasts following a disappointing quarter

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Hellofresh plummets to a new all-time low (Hellofresh) on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange (DAX 40), following the cut in annual targets in the wake of a disappointing third-quarter performance. The meal delivery company’s share price has fallen by nearly 65 per cent since the start of the year. Hellofresh, which has been struggling for some time, announced that ‘during the back-to-school period, the volume of new customers acquired did not reach the level required to meet the recently published forecasts and current market expectations for the 2026 financial year and the third quarter of 2026”.

The company explains that “the lower-than-expected results in terms of new customer acquisition are primarily attributable to the extent of the reduction in marketing expenditure in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the previous year, a reduction which was more pronounced than in the first half of 2026’. Against this backdrop, the company’s board of directors forecasts a decline in consolidated turnover in the third quarter of between 11% and 12% year-on-year at constant exchange rates (compared with -9.3% in the same period of 2025), which is lower than the latest market expectations, which the company had estimated at around -6.8%. Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter is expected to stand at between 45 and 55 million euros, up from 40 million last year and compared with the 57.2 million expected on average by analysts.

Consequently, ‘the Board of Directors has today decided to revise its forecasts for the full 2026 financial year’. The new estimates now point to a fall in turnover of between 9 per cent and 11 per cent, at constant exchange rates, whereas previously the group had forecast a maximum decline in revenue of 6 per cent. Analysts had, on average, expected a decline of around 7 per cent. EBITDA, excluding non-recurring items, is now expected to be between €350 million and €375 million, whereas the previous forecast was between €375 million and €425 million. The final results for the quarter will be announced on 5 November.

With the current decline, Hellofresh’s market capitalisation has fallen below the €400 million mark, whilst at its peak it had exceeded €16 billion. Thanks to its high market capitalisation, the company’s shares were also included in the DAX index from September 2021 to September 2022. The stock is currently listed only on the SDAX. The group was listed on the stock exchange in 2017, with an issue price of 10.25 euros.