Piazza Affari: UniCredit in the spotlight – ECB set to approve merger with Commerz

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - On the Milan Stock Exchange, Unicredit is up by over one point, whilst Commerzbank is up 1.6% in Frankfurt. Both shares are being buoyed by fresh rumours regarding the merger talks. The ECB is reportedly set to approve UniCredit’s acquisition of the German bank. The final decision is expected between September and October and, according to press reports, “could be brought forward to late September or early October”, writes Intermonte.

The ECB would see no “substantive grounds for objecting” to the deal, whilst expecting a “complex and protracted” integration process, according to Reuters’ initial report on the matter. Germany’s BaFin, on the other hand, is said to be more cautious, having raised concerns about UniCredit’s governance and conduct, and asking the Italian bank to set out “a strategy to rebuild trust” with management, staff, stakeholders and politicians, following a deal perceived as hostile.

The most sensitive financial issue remains capital. According to reports, the ECB is “focusing on the impact of the capital absorption resulting from the consolidation of Commerzbank, with the specific requirement to maintain a CET1 ratio above 12.5%”. This is a factor “that could potentially influence UniCredit’s future dividend payments”, emphasises Intermonte, which forecasts a capital absorption of around 280–290 basis points resulting from the Commerzbank consolidation. In this scenario – the brokerage estimates – “UniCredit’s CET1 could be closer to 12% than to 13%”. Intermonte remains positive on UniCredit, with an “outperform” rating and a target price of €103. According to the analysts, “the news is consistent with UniCredit’s expectations regarding the granting of authorisations by the end of 2026”, whilst their estimates already factor in the “line-by-line” consolidation of Commerzbank from 1 January 2027.