Assolombarda Study Centre

Food increases foreign sales in Milan: +9.3% in the first half year

3' min read

3' min read

The instability and fragility of the international geopolitical environment, together with the economic slowdown in China and Europe in particular, continue to hold back global trade, which, after the -10.3% drop in global demand in value recorded in 2023, is still at -6.2% in the first half of 2024.

Hardest hit, of course, are countries with a greater foreign vocation such as Italy, which lost -1.1% in exports between January and June this year. Within this, it is interesting to analyse the performance of Milan, whose companies are particularly projected into the global network.

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The metropolitan city's exports were down in the first half of 2024: -2.4% trend in January-June 2024, with the first and second quarters both contracting. This result, however, is better than the dynamics of global trade, which, as mentioned above, marked -6.2%, and above all of 'potential exports', since if we had kept the export shares of the first half of 2023 unchanged, demand would have fallen by -4.7%.

It is an initial confirmation of the greater competitive resilience of local companies within the current slowdown that emerges when integrating the analysis of Istat territorial data with preliminary world trade data in value from the International Trade Committee.

A deeper reading of the data shows that the average performance of the Milan area summarises very differentiated trends between manufacturing sectors.

Some production sectors, in fact, maintain an expansion dynamic and even beat potential demand. This is the case for foodstuffs, which in the first half of 2024 increased its sales on foreign markets by +9.3% year-on-year and was more than 8 percentage points above potential, as well as for machinery and design-furniture, which achieved higher exports of +2.6% and +1.6% respectively and were also well above potential.

Other sectors remain broadly in line with the previous year's results, but in doing so are well positioned against a sharply declining global demand. These are chemicals, whose cross-border sales are only just positive (+0.4%) in the first six months of 2024 against a negative potential demand that is almost 10 percentage points lower, and the electrical equipment sector, which registers stationary exports (-0.1%) in the period of analysis, compared with a potential that is more than 6 percentage points lower.

In addition, there is a group of sectors that, on the other hand, experience negative trends compared to 2023, but manage to contain their losses compared to a much more negative potential demand considering the retreat of global trade in these specific sectors. In particular, the metals and rubber-plastics sectors, with trend declines of -4.7% and -2.4%, respectively, in the first six months of 2024, are a clear departure from the lower potential.

Automotive (-5.8%) and electronics (-4%) are also contracting, but the performance for electronics is not so far from potential, unlike automotive, which is more than 2 percentage points from potential.

Finally, fashion and pharmaceuticals, among the territory's major vocations, are particularly penalised. In the first half of 2024, fashion saw a significant drop in foreign turnover of -8.2%, far from its potential demand. To be monitored carefully is pharmaceuticals, with exports down by -9.5%, as opposed to a potential that would even be positive and equal to 5.5%.

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