In Parliament

India, employment and rural areas: the Modi government presents the budget bill

About USD 24 billion will be allocated over the next five years to stimulate new job creation, and investments in rural regions of the country will amount to about USD 32 billion over the next 12 months

by Marco Masciaga

La ministra delle Finanze indiana Nirmala Sitharaman in posa con la cartellina rossa in cui viene tradizionalmente trasportata la legge di bilancio

3' min read

3' min read

From our correspondent

NEW DELHI - The third Modi government on Tuesday presented its first Budget Bill since the premier's party no longer has an absolute majority in Parliament. As was easy to predict, the budget contains measures aimed at employment, the development of those rural areas that turned their backs on the majority in the last elections, and a couple of politically crucial states for the coalition's hold.

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In presenting the document, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman explained that the equivalent of 24 billion dollars will be allocated over the next five years to stimulate the creation of new jobs and investments in the country's rural regions will amount to some 32 billion dollars over the next 12 months. Despite the spending - and in part thanks to a rich dividend from the Reserve Bank of India and rising tax revenues - the executive also aims to consolidate public finances, bringing the deficit to 4.9 per cent, down from the projected 5.1 per cent.

Modi ter's first budget also reaffirms the centrality of infrastructure investments in the government's economic policy with a focus on two states - Bihar and Andhra Pradesh - that are crucial in the balances on which the government rests. The two states are governed by the leaders of two local parties whose national MPs are indispensable to the governing majority. The Minister of Finance also explained that Bihar and Andhra Pradesh will be helped by the central government in intercepting loans offered by multilateral institutions.

The Budget Law also aims to rebalance, at least to a small extent, the strong inequalities that have characterised the country's decades-long economic boom. Taxation on capital gains is bound to rise. In the case of capital gains generated by the sale of securities held for less than a year, it rises from 15 to 20 per cent. In the case of those held longer than 12 months it will rise from 10 to 12.5 per cent.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has described the budget as the catalyst that will make India the third largest economy in the world. Advancing it by two places by the end of his third term is one of the goals of the PM, who has also long insisted that India will become a developed country by 2047, when the 100th anniversary of independence from the British Crown will be celebrated.

The first of the two targets is not unattainable, partly because it is estimated that in the current fiscal year India will grow by 6.5-7%; partly because the economies ahead of it in the rankings (Germany and Japan) are not much bigger and are not as dynamic.

Achieving results on the employment front, however, promises to be more difficult. Economic growth is failing to keep pace with demographic growth and has disproportionately favoured the wealthier classes. According to data from the World Inequality Lab, the amount of wealth concentrated in the hands of the richest 1% of the population is at a 60-year high.

But the real crux remains employment. According to data from the Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy the youth unemployment rate hovers around 9.2 per cent, a figure made all the more worrying by the demographic structure of the country, one of the youngest on earth. In an attempt to mitigate the problem, for the next five years the 500 largest companies in the country will have to offer 10 million young people paid internships lasting 12 months at their own expense.

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