Industry ahead slowly, Hormuz permitting

Hormuz.What will make the difference for Italian industry will be the outcome of the clash over this strip of sea. Should the tensions be resolved soon - estimate the analysts of Intesa Sanpaolo and Prometeia - in 2026 there could be a "slowdown" for our manufacturing. Or, on the contrary, a drop in revenues of 1.8% and a slowdown even in 2027, if the US and Israeli conflict against Iran and the related blockade of the Strait of Hormuz should continue for the entire year, generating side effects for world demand.

The base scenario in the new edition of the report-analysis on the manufacturing sectors is currently the most optimistic one, which forecasts a 2026 for the Italian manufacturing industry with stable turnover at constant prices (+0.2%) and a moderate increase at current prices (+3.8%), with overall turnover rising to 1,168 billion lire. Estimates that incorporate an assumption of a limited duration of the conflict in the Middle East and an improvement in the operating environment in the second half of the year. No rebound, however, rather a gradual normalisation of world trade, taking into account the significant damage suffered by some energy infrastructures. More sustained growth, that of current values, with nominal revenues reflecting the new inflationary tensions triggered by the rise in the costs of energy, chemical and key intermediate goods inputs. Growth, that expected, will receive a minimal contribution from exports (seen at +0.1% at constant values) and for which the contribution of domestic demand will instead be decisive. Linked to infrastructure, with the final grounding of the NRP, as well as to capital goods, supported in perspective by the new tax incentive package. Consumption, on the other hand, will be less lively in analysts' estimates, as it will be affected by the cutback in the most compressible expenditure in a context of uncertainty and new pressure on incomes. In any case, the ability of Italia's manufacturing industry to continue exporting will be decisive. The growth of Italian industry's propensity to export, which will touch 56% in 2030, will lead to an expansion of the trade balance towards EUR 125 billion (21 more than pre-Covid), despite a context of weaker global demand than in the past and a sustained increase in imports, favoured by price competition, especially from China. In order to stem global competition,' the report explains, 'it will be necessary to push further on the lever of investments aimed at strengthening the processes of digitalisation and sustainability of supply. With investments made possible for companies by a capital structure that is in any case strengthened compared to the past. Moreover, energy autonomy has now become a strategic priority, through interventions aimed at making production processes more efficient and developing solutions for self-production and energy management. "The moment is complicated and uncertain," explains Intesa Sanpaolo's chief economist Gregorio De Felice, "but the current energy crisis has different characteristics compared to 2022: there are significant effects on prices, but at the moment without profound breaks in global value chains.

However, the base scenario proposed by analysts is flanked by a gloomier one, with the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz beyond mid-2026. In this hypothesis, the deterioration of global and domestic demand would lead Italy's manufacturing sector to record a contraction in turnover at constant prices in the two-year period 2026-27 (-1.5% on average per year). Tensions that would also translate into a significant penalisation of unit margins, estimated to fall to 7.4% in 2027 compared to 9.7% in the baseline scenario, which is seen as only half a point lower than last year.