Auto and fashion sink industry: -0.9% in February, -2.7% year-on-year

A brake that also comes from the side of investments, the first to be affected in phases of uncertainty, as happens now. Doubts that in the case of the Transition 5.0 bonuses are added to the procedural complexities and that have so far led to a minimal draw on the plafond, with just 677 million in tax credits booked, less than 11%. A stagnation that can be seen in Istat data on machinery, which fell by almost ten points in February in terms of production.

Weakness was also well recorded in the qualitative indications, with the ISTAT indices for March revealing a sharp fall in consumer confidence, with visible retreats in every category analysed, a sharp drop of four points that brings the index to its lowest level since November 2023. Expectations on the Italian economy in particular are down, with the balance between optimists and pessimists falling by 15 points compared to the previous month: only in Covid's darkest period had it been worse. Confidence was also limited on the business side, with the index dropping over a point, a drop explained by manufacturing and services.

The boost that can come from our main 'customer' in this phase is still limited, namely Germany, which in February saw a new setback in industrial production (down by 4% on an annual basis), with forecasts for 2025 that are even less brilliant than those for Italy: the Ifo institute, for example, hypothesises for Berlin in 2025 a GDP growth of just two decimals. The positive aspect, while waiting for the first effects of Trump's duties to unfold (at the moment, and it is worth reiterating the transitory aspect, the tariffs on cars seem to have been confirmed), concerns the four-wheeler sector, with local production in Berlin that in the first three months of the year rose by 5% to almost 1.1 million units (ten times Italy's production in the same period), and exports grew by five points.

In the background, in terms of outlook, there remains the unknown impact of the trade war launched by the Trump administration, with domino effects that are difficult to predict, also in light of Washington's continuous 'stop-and-go' between rates, goods and affected countries. For China, for example, Goldman Sachs has now revised growth downwards by half a point for both this year and next, considering it unlikely that Beijing will be able to offset the effect of the new tariffs (now at 125%) on the US market.

In detail

In February the seasonally adjusted index of industrial production decreased by 0.9% compared to January. Year-on-year, the index net of calendar effects decreased in trend terms by 2.7% (there were 20 calendar working days compared to 21 in February 2024), the raw index by 6.4%. Istat reports this.

The seasonally adjusted index increased on a monthly basis only for energy (+4%), while decreases were observed for capital goods (-3.3%), intermediate goods (-2%) and consumer goods (-1.9%).

On a tendency basis, the adjusted index shows growth only for energy (+7.6%); on the contrary, decreases were recorded for capital goods (-9.8%), intermediate goods (-4.6%) and consumer goods (-2%).

The only sectors of economic activity that show tendential increases are the supply of electricity, gas, steam and air (+19.4%), the wood, paper and printing industry (+3.4%) and the food, drink and tobacco industry (+1.6%). In the remaining branches, the largest declines are to be found in the manufacture of transport vehicles (-14.1%), in the textile, clothing, leather and accessories industries (-12.9%) and in the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products (-12%).