Italian industrial production in January 2026: marked falls in chemicals and textiles, growth only in motor vehicles

The economic climate therefore remains gloomy, as witnessed also by the latest estimates, made in the aftermath of the US and Israeli attack on Iran.

In the forecasts just released by Cerved, the hypothesis of a prolonged crisis, with the price of crude oil permanently above last year's levels, would have wide-ranging repercussions on the entire national economy, for which growth of just three decimal places is assumed.

Stagnating domestic consumption (only +0.2%) and falling exports (-0.8%) would then translate into a reversal of business revenues. Seen in progress before the crisis, in decline, albeit limited, both this year and next in this new outlined scenario. In which a new leap in inflation is hypothesised, due to the knock-on effects of the high energy price, almost one point above the value programmed by the MEF.

Although the situation is volatile and subject to sudden changes, there are already companies with shipments to the Gulf area blocked, orders that customers do not pick up due to 'force majeure' and millions of Euros in potential receipts that remain blocked, with complex situations in particular among manufacturers of valves for the oil & gas sector, companies that in some cases develop as much as two-thirds of their turnover in the Middle East.

In any case, the January figures are earlier and do not discount these effects, just as the rejection of Trump's tariffs by the US Supreme Court was still pending that month.

Which justifies the collection of data. In February, for example, the Pmi Manufacturing Index in Italia rose to 50.6 points, crossing the 50-point threshold separating economic expansion from contraction, for the first time in the last three months.

Economic climate elsewhere in Europe does not shine, starting with Germany. Where industrial production in January dropped half a point in the month, 1.2% on an annual basis, declines that become much larger (-2.5% monthly, -2.6% annually) if we look at manufacturing alone, excluding energy and construction from the calculation.

The result is a Berlin manufacturing index that is a full 13 points below the pre-Covid period. From the automotive sector, there continue to be less-than-stellar signals, with volume production down by 9% compared to the same month in 2025, to 306 thousand units. However, the decline is limited (+1% in February), with the first two months (730 thousand cars produced) only ten points below the corresponding period in 2020, on the eve of Covid.

The situation is not brilliant for production in general, as reported by Eurostat, which shows an average 1.6% drop for the 27 EU countries in January. Slowdowns involving the largest economies (e.g. Spain and Poland, as well as Germany), with the only significant exception among the biggies being France, up 0.5% year-on-year