Report-Analysis by Intesa Sanpaolo and Prometeia on productive sectors

Industry in the red by 20 billion, clearing up in 2025

Revenues down 1.7% but already next year exports and domestic demand will make up lost ground. The crux of Trump's possible duties

8 November 2024

3' min read

Twenty billion less this year, which will, however, be fully recovered in 2025. The picture offered by Intesa Sanpaolo and Prometeia's analysis of industrial sectors already sees in the title (Managing uncertainty) a good summary of what is happening.

Analysts estimate that 2024 for Italian manufacturing will close with current revenues down by 1.7%, the result of a weakness in domestic and international demand that will hit cars, fashion, metals and electronics in particular. Export data in particular are affected by the weakness of intra-EU trade, starting from Germany, even though geographical and product diversification underpin volumes, with the result of stabilising sales at constant values (+0.2%) at the record levels of the last two years.

On the domestic front, while consumption is still paying for the deterioration in purchasing power and the choice of households to restore their savings rate to pre-crisis levels, investments are being penalised by the remodulation of the Superbonus and the delayed arrival of the implementation decrees of the 5.0 plan, with commitments in machinery declining steadily from Q3 2023.

The result, for the industry, is a drop in revenues also in deflated terms, down 0.9%, after -2.1% in 2023.

Suffering is the fashion system, due to an overall drop in demand, as well as cars, grappling with the stop-and-go of the green transition, while the entire construction sector (furniture, household appliances) remains weak, after the farewell to the superbonus.

Although the context remains full of unknowns, a brightening can nevertheless be framed for 2025, with forecasts of industrial revenue growth in both current (+2.2%) and constant (+0.9%) values. The result of a series of brightenings and loosening on the interest rate front, the grounding of the 5.0 bonus and the Pnrr, the upturn in international demand as well as domestic demand, pushed up by the broadening of the employment base and the increases included in contractual renewals.

Manufacturing forecasts: Intesa Sanpaolo and Prometeia

Biennium 2025-2026 seen as favourable on average for most sectors with a few exceptions. These include once again cars, which are at the pole due to the difficulties faced in the green transition, as well as construction-related sectors (the construction products and materials area is the only one to present a negative outlook). The revival of infrastructures, according to analysts' estimates, will not be able to fully offset the drop in orders related to renovations, a scenario that will also continue to penalise manufacturers of durable goods for the home.

The industry therefore seems to be able to overcome this difficult phase, which is linked to the solidity shown in terms of profitability. In 2023 Ebitda (11.1%) went to a new record high above the already good 2022 levels, thanks to an overall easing of costs in the presence, however, of prices that remained high. Sthe increase in the share of manufacturing companies with high profitability (Roi above 10%) rose rapidly from 32% in 2020 to 46% in 2023, with improvements across the board in terms of size and production specialisation. This is the absolute highest share in the last 15 years.

The effect of the super-bonus is evident in the margins: while the category of construction products/materials has the highest values (16.8%), the suppliers of this chain have also benefited, realising the highest increases compared to 2022. .

At the same time, the percentage of companies with negative cash flow decreased further, from the already low levels of 2022, reaching its lowest point in 15 years.

The unknowns, however, remain high, starting with the impact of the Trump presidency's new US policies, with the probable deployment of duties that could curb our sales and reduce Italy's surplus with Washington: with over 40 billion it is second in Europe only to that of Germany. For a country that is a strong exporter, with a propensity to export rising to 51.6%, almost 20 points above the 2002 figure, the start of a trade war would certainly not be good news.

Luca Orlandoinviato-caporedattore
- @lucaorlando66
Luogo: Milano
Lingue parlate: Inglese
Argomenti: Imprese, meccanica, innovazione, export, macchinari, Industria 4.0, robot
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