Industry, capital goods boost revenues: +0.6% in 2025. Exports down

However, the picture remains mixed. While it is true that the revenue index is 13 points above the level (100) of 2021, from mid-2022 onwards the decline has been almost constant and the recent slight recovery is not enough to make up for the downturn of the last two years.

'The recovery of turnover in 2025 for industry,' explains Confindustria Vice President for Labour and Industrial Relations Maurizio Marchesini, 'is a positive sign. Of course the situation is still very difficult, the international situation is really very complicated, so I would not have too many illusions. We hope that the recovery of turnover will consolidate, but it will not do so on its own: beyond the international problems, we also need to do something at national level to consolidate it. The cost of energy is certainly a factor to be addressed. And more and more investments must be made. Remember that even today the investments promoted by the financial law are still at a standstill'.

In December 2025, industry turnover, net of seasonal factors, is estimated to increase cyclically by 0.5% in value and 1.7% in volume. On the domestic market, there is a zero change in value and an increase of 2.3% in volume, while on the foreign market there are increases of 1.3% in value and 0.7% in volume. For the services sector, economic growth is estimated at 1.0% in value and 0.8% in volume, with increases in both wholesale trade (+0.8% in value and +1.3% in volume) and other services (+1.1% in value and +0.8% in volume).The seasonally adjusted indexes of turnover in value referring to the main industrial groupings recorded a cyclical increase in December for consumer goods (+1.4%) and intermediate goods (+0.7%), while there were decreases for capital goods (-0.2%) and energy (-1.6%).In the fourth quarter of 2025, industry turnover, in cyclical terms and net of seasonal factors, was growing (+0.4% in value and +1.1% in volume). In the same time frame, for services, there is an increase of 0.1% in value and 0.3% in volume.In December 2025, industry turnover, adjusted for calendar effects, shows a trend increase in value (+3.6%) and in volume (+4.8%). Growth is estimated on both the domestic market (+3.0% in value and +5.0% in volume) and the foreign market (+4.9% in value and +4.2% in volume).

January, on the other hand, was negative in terms of foreign sales, which fell by six points in non-EU markets, a drop that was also visible compared to the previous month. From a sectoral point of view, the tendential decrease in exports was mainly due to lower sales of energy (-38.0%) and capital goods (-15.1%); only exports of intermediate goods increased (+5.3%).

There was also an almost choral slowdown in geographical terms, with a drop of almost seven points in the United States (in January, however, the US Supreme Court's stop to tariffs had not yet arrived), 15 in the United Kingdom, and 16 in Japan. The Middle East and India also fell (-10%), while only China and Switzerland grew (by double digits, moreover).

'Settlement phase,' comments Ice president Matteo Zoppas, 'in a more complex global context.

Falling sales were compounded by an even larger drop in purchases from abroad, with imports dropping 14%, with reductions spread to almost all areas. As a result, the trade balance improves to over two billion in surplus, from 370 million in January 2025.

It should be noted, one year after Trump's arrival as US president, that in terms of the trade balance nothing has actually changed. The tariffs policy, launched on paper also in order to achieve a rebalancing of trade, with regard to Italia at the moment does not change the picture: if in January 2025 our country's trade surplus with Washington was 2.6 billion, in January 2026 it is at an almost identical level, at 2.56 billion.

Striking, however, is the shift in import values towards Russia, which more than halved in the month. In the absence of sectoral details, which will only be released with the arrival of data from European countries, we can however assume that the slowdown, a reduction of 156 million, concerns metals and crude oil, which in January 2025 accounted for almost all our purchases from Moscow. In the month there was a surplus of 74 million euro towards Russia, compared to a deficit of 63 million in January 2025, the only month in which our purchases from Moscow exceeded exports last year.