Report

Innovation Forum, real estate will be worth 31% of national GDP in 2050

Study by Real Estate Scenarios and Dils presents positive forecast results for the future

by Margherita Ceci

11 April 2024

3' min read

Key points

Pnrr and public policy
Future megatrends
The property chain
During 2050

3' min read

Without innovation there is no growth. 610 billion euro of wealth generated by the real estate supply chain in 2030, up 19% from 510 in 2023; in 2050, estimates speak of 31% of national GDP with the involvement of 2.5 million workers. All this, however, provided that industries know how to intercept change and introduce new systems, arrangements and production methods. These are the conclusions that emerged today during the Innovation Forum 2024, where Scenari Immobiliari and Dils presented the results of the report "Innovare vale - I megatrend al 2030 e 2050 come motori di sviluppo e valore".

Analysing the possibilities for social and economic development, imagining a constant GDP growth of 1.1% per year and a shrinking population (54.3 million inhabitants in 2050), the study assumed a GDP in 2050 of about 2.5 trillion euro, with a per capita distribution of about 46,000 euro.

Pnrr and Public Policy

But in this process of innovation, how important is public works? "The country system is the protagonist of the future transformation and is called upon to innovate," Francesca Zirnstein, general manager of Scenari Immobiliari, explained to Il Sole 24 Ore. "The public administration is the facilitator, it must set objectives and governance strategies to make the territories work well and activate public-private partnership processes, which are necessary for some issues, those with a greater social matrix".

The NRP, with its EUR 200 billion and the 2026 targets, plays its role, 'atalysing attention, institutions and private groups towards unusual investments, among them technological enhancement and digitisation and infrastructure investments, tangible and intangible,' Zirnstein continued. This is an important start, even though '200 billion is a limited sum compared to the investments needed over the long-term horizon'.

Future megatrends

Starting from five structural factors - population and society, territory and environment, politics and geopolitics, education, economy and labour - and predicting the drivers of the economy and the system of connections and relations, the study has come up with positive megatrends for the near future. Shaping the economic balances, political plans, social structures, environmental choices and values of tomorrow will be efficiency, technology, quality and culture. Trends that, if harnessed, will lead to continued GDP growth of 1.1% per year.

"The megatrends illustrated in the report," explained Mario Breglia, president of Scenari Immobiliari, at the opening of the proceedings, "show a world in profound transformation, with growing competition and in search of new paths in the social and economic spheres. The reduction of the population in Italy and the decline in private building activity do not result in a contraction of the real estate services industry. On the contrary, product innovation to modify the existing heritage is becoming increasingly important. The hybridisation of functions will be the key for the coming years'.

Every euro of additional value generated by the industries of the future will depend on three components that companies will have to intercept: process production efficiency (technology and specialisation; weighs 28% of the estimates), risk management (managerial, technical and financial expertise; 17%), new markets (megatrends; 55%).

The property chain

But in this context, how much does the real estate industry weigh? Today it accounts for 21.6% of GDP, with just under one million employees. Estimates, for 2030, rise to 23.5%, reaching 26.1% in 2050. "The real estate sector at an international level and also in Italy is having to deal with numerous changes, which are leading to a reconsideration of how spaces are used and their functions, also in light of the evolution of demand," explained Giuseppe Amitrano, founder and CEO of Dils. At the same time, new asset classes linked to social and economic macro-trends such as healthcare and education are also developing in our country. With regard to healthcare, in the real estate world there are already examples of RSAs and private hospitals. Education, on the other hand, is still a little-explored sector from the point of view of real estate investments, although it is driven by a growing demand for quality education".

Down to 2050

"2030 and 2050 are time objectives dependent on European indications, they are only representative, the process is underway," Zirnstein concluded. "The speed with which it will be implemented will depend on the industrial policies that will be activated, on the willingness of entrepreneurs, and on economic elements that are difficult to predict. The results are being seen in the various realities with different intensity depending on the attractiveness of the area, the presence of a more or less flourishing economy, the structural quality of the real estate industry operating in the area, and the will of the public administration'.

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