Insolvencies, +5% in Italia: 50,000 jobs at risk

Bankruptcy courts have seen them increase over time. In more and more areas. Projections by Allianz Trade confirm that the number of insolvencies is set to grow further in the near future. In Italia (+5%) and beyond (+6% globally). With new peaks due above all to the effects of the conflict in the Middle East. And with repercussions particularly on the construction, non-food retail, services, transport and real estate sectors. Growing, however, are the tensions also for manufacturing, the heart of Made in Italy.

The supply chains most exposed to energy costs are the most fragile in this historic moment of widespread and acute international crises. Where the even greater suffering, in terms of defaults, of Italy's main trading partners (+25-30% in France, +20-25% in Germany, +30% in the United Kingdom and +10% in the United States compared to the pre-pandemic period) - become a further reason for instability for our economy, especially for those segments most projected towards exports.

It speaks of a "structurally high level of risk" in Allianz Trade's focus on the comparison between Italia and the most important outlet markets within the overall report on global insolvency. For the fifth consecutive year globally, insolvency numbers are expected to increase by another 6% in 2026, with another 7,000 cases estimated for this year and 7,900 for 2027. The main driver is Asia, with half of the world's insolvencies, explained in large part by the economic weight of China, which faces problems related to weak domestic demand and the crisis in the real estate sector. Jobs at risk worldwide would be 2.2 million (+94 thousand in 2026). With a record, in Europe, of 283 thousand possible redundancies in France and over 200 thousand in Germany, where bankruptcies are expected to reach their highest level in fourteen years. It is no better in the United States, where 428,000 people could suddenly find themselves out of work.

These, moreover, are elaborate projections not worst-case prospects. They take into account the 'repercussions of the crisis in the Middle East and the immediate implications for energy markets', but are confident of a 'gradual normalisation of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz,' the report says, 'by June'. On the contrary, if that strategic transit hub for goods, which has become the focus of the war in Iran, "were to remain blocked for longer, causing continuous disruptions in the global supply of oil and gas, as well as shortages of other raw materials (methane, fertilisers, aluminium, helium and sulphur), inflation would rise sharply - is the scenario outlined - dampening confidence and growth". Translated into numbers, a more prolonged conflict would cause global insolvency estimates to spike to 10% in 2026, with a further +3% in 2027: 4.100 additional cases in the US and 10,500 in Europe between this year and next year. Other unknowns are identified in the possible bursting of an artificial intelligence-related bubble and in sovereign debt tensions, especially in the eurozone, with further upward revisions of insolvencies.

Looking deeper into Italia, after three consecutive years of acceleration in bankruptcies (registering +9% in 2023, +17% in 2024 and with a jump of +26% in 2025), a further 5% increase is expected, with around 12,750 cases in 2026. And this in light of the fact that 'economic growth will remain modest, partly due to Italia's structural and high dependence on imported energy and its impact on households and energy-intensive industries', explain the economists of Allianz Trade, a subsidiary of the insurance giant. A picture that translates into about 50,000 jobs potentially in the balance throughout Italy. In light of the context outlined, the analysts speak of "historically high levels of risk" for the domestic market, with possible repercussions on the "financial solidity of the more export-oriented sectors".