Installed capacity is stagnating: 7 gigas a year out of the 10 required

In 2025, 7 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity were installed in Italia (6.4 gigawatts of solar power and 612 megawatts of wind power), practically the same level as the previous year. According to figures compiled by Elettricità Futura, in the first three months of 2026, additional capacity stood at 1.68 gigawatts (of which 1.439 gigawatts was from solar power). This pace is too slow compared with the targets set out in the National Energy and Climate Plan, which aims to install 50 gigawatts by 2030: at least 10 gigawatts of additional capacity would be needed each year.

The slow pace of deployment is not due to inertia on the part of industry players, who, on the contrary, continue to produce projects and initiate approval processes, to the extent that by April 2026, the capacity still in the pipeline had reached 200 gigas, of which 130 gigawatts is from solar power and 70 gigawatts from wind power. There are essentially two obstacles holding back renewable energy capacity – and its price-capping effect on the cost of electricity: the slow permitting process, linked to the timescales and procedures by which Italian regions are implementing the rules of the ‘Suitable Areas’ decree, as set out in the latest version of this interministerial decree (which had already been challenged before the Regional Administrative Court and subsequently amended) and which was elevated to primary legislation by the Transition 5.0 Decree, passed into law in January. And then there are regulatory instruments such as FerX – that is, the incentives – or the Energy Release scheme, which guarantee a return on investment and make projects bankable. These instruments currently involve excessively long lead times for their development, approval and implementation.

When it comes to planning permission, the ball is now in the regions’ court, but up until a year ago it was the government that was putting obstacles in the way of renewables. First came the Agriculture Decree, which in 2024 blocked the construction of solar power plants on agricultural land, followed by the first Suitable Areas Decree, which had tightened those restrictions further. The new version, following the Regional Administrative Court’s ruling, was also restrictive and was dismantled through a series of amendments during its conversion into law. Safeguards were secured for plants that had already begun the authorisation process (around 100 gigawatts). And, amongst other provisions, the reinstatement of the 350-metre buffer zones around businesses where self-consumption plants are to be built. This is a point that is likely close to Confindustria’s heart, given that these areas are, by definition, designated to host the installations for the ‘Energy Release’ scheme (where energy is obtained at a capped price in exchange for the construction of self-consumption installations).

The problem now is the lengthy delays characterising the implementation of the rules in these areas, where authorisations should be swift and streamlined. Some regions, such as Puglia, are taking advantage of this to impose inappropriate restrictions that render all land with PDO, DOC and similar crops ineligible. Emilia-Romagna and Lombardy are also said to be applying restrictive interpretations. Sardinia stands out above all others; with its law, which has been challenged by the government, it has left only 1 per cent of its territory eligible. Permitting costs account for 20–30 per cent of the plant’s construction costs, which are passed on to the cost of energy. Operators are putting forward a vast number of projects (the famous 200 gigawatts) because they know that, on average, only one in ten projects is successfully completed. If the permitting process were made more efficient, these costs (and the sheer number of projects) would be reduced. Another factor holding things back is the lack of certainty regarding incentives. Last year, auctions were held for the transitional FerX scheme following a lengthy process. The Ministry of the Environment is now working on the new FerX and is reportedly on the verge of notifying Brussels. The industry is calling for swift negotiations with the EU and timely planning of the auctions: this is because, once contracts have been awarded, it takes at least a couple of years to build the plants.