Installed capacity sets the pace: 7 gigs per year out of 10 required

In 2025, 7 gigawatts of renewable energy systems were installed in Italia (6.4 gigawatts of photovoltaics and 612 megawatts of wind power), practically the same level as the previous year. According to numbers compiled by Elettricità Futura, in the first three months of 2026 the additional capacity amounted to 1.68 gigawatts (of which 1.439 gigawatts from photovoltaics). A pace that is too slow compared to the targets set in the National Energy and Climate Plan, which envisages installing 50 giga by 2030: at least 10 additional giga per year would be needed.

The slowness of grounding is not linked to the inertia of the sector's operators, who, on the contrary, continue to produce projects and initiate approval processes, so much so that in April 2026 the capacity on the starting blocks had reached 200 gigas, of which 130 from photovoltaics and 70 from wind power. There are basically two obstacles holding back renewable energy capacity - and its calming effect on the price of electricity -: the slowness of permitting, linked to the timeframes and methods with which the Italian regions are transposing the rules of the Eligible Areas decree, as envisaged in the latest version of this inter-ministerial measure (already challenged in the TAR and then corrected) transformed into a primary regulation with the Transition 5.0 decree converted into law in January. And then the regulatory instruments such as the FerX - or incentives - or the Energy Release, which guarantee a return on investment and make projects bankable. Instruments that today have too long a processing, approval and grounding time.

On permitting, today the ball is in the regions' court, but until a year ago it was the government that built obstacles in the path of renewables. First with the Agriculture decree, which in 2024 blocked the construction of photovoltaic plants on land for agricultural use, then the first Eligible Areas decree, which had increased that squeeze. The new version after the Tar was also restrictive and was dismantled by amendments when it was converted into law. A safeguard was obtained for plants that had already started the authorisation process (about a hundred jigs). And, among other coasts, the restoration of strips of land within 350 metres around companies where self-consumption plants can be built. A point that is probably close to Confindustria's heart, given that these areas are the zones destined by definition to host the Energy Release plants (energy is obtained at a subsidised price in exchange for the construction of self-consumption plants).

The problem, now, is the long lead times that are characterising the transposition phase of the rules on these areas where authorisations should be quick and simplified. Some, like Apulia, are taking advantage of this to insert improper stakes that make all the land that has PDO, DOC, etc. crops unsuitable. Emilia-Romagna and Lombardy are also giving restrictive interpretations. Sardinia stands out above all others, whose law challenged by the government has left only 1% of its territory suitable. The cost of permitting weighs 20-30% on the cost of building the plant, which is reflected in the cost of energy. Operators field a huge multitude of projects (the famous 200 gigawatts) because they know that on average only one project in 10 succeeds. If permitting were made efficient, these costs (and all these projects) would be reduced. The other thing that holds us back is the lack of certainty about incentives. Last year the auctions on the transitional FerX were made after a long process. Now the Ministry of the Environment is working on the new FerX and is about to notify it to Brussels. The industry is asking for a quick negotiation time with the EU and for the auctions to be planned in time: because after the allocations, it takes at least a couple of years to build the plants.