Intel, stock market bets on Trump's move and wants turnaround in accounts

A waiting market. This is how investors' attitude towards Intel can be summarised. The proof is offered by the dynamics of the share price on the stock exchange. "First of all, it must be emphasised," explain some chartists to Il Sole 24 ore, "that the shares are realising a bearish trend in the long term. The dynamic resistance - passing from the double high in the $69 area in 2021 and the lower top in late December 2023 (around $51) - would currently be around the $41 level'. However, today the stock dances at around $20. That is to say, a much lower value which, in fact, 'signals a downward bias'.

Having said that, however, 'for a little over a year the shares have been in a sideways trend. A rectangle that has as its roof the $27 mark, while the floor is in the $18 zone'. Usually, in such situations, statistics say that the exit 'from the congestion momentum is downwards. If this were to happen,' the independent analysts go on to explain, 'the level to be monitored would be the $12-13 level'. Beyond, however, the statistics - and the fact that in such a context the do-it-yourselfer is obliged to the maximum caution, evaluating his own propensity to risk - it is clear how the market is in 'stand by'. A condition that is well understandable. Investors want to understand whether, after the false start linked to former CEO Pat Gelsinger - the restructuring story of the former US chip queen is really coming to fruition. Or not.

Against this, and to better understand the context, it is useful to recall the company's corporate purpose. The multinational company is an integrated chip manufacturer. That is to say, it carries out a large part of the three main construction phases of the semiconductor: the design of the microprocessor architecture; the production of the microprocessor on the wafer; the assembly (in plastic or ceramic containers) and testing. All the steps described were historically conducted on Intel's own proprietary solutions. Well, one of the focuses of the previous CEO - who was also called upon to relaunch the company, and who was dismissed at the end of 2024 because he did not consider himself up to the task - was that, on the one hand, the group's foundries (factories) should increasingly open up to third-party production; and that, on the other hand - also in order to pursue the indicated objective - the group should make significant investments in the production base. Precisely these latter mega-disbursements proved - at least in the eyes of experts and the market - to be incorrect. In particular, it was considered insufficient return on investment. Hence, the negative reactions of the stock market which - together with unsatisfactory quarterly accounts - led to Gelsinger's exit and the arrival, last March, of another managing director: Li-Bu Tan.

The new start was marked by several elements. First and foremost is the revised programme on the Foundry division. Tan has a clear vision: to expand production capacity only if and when needed. Thus Intel has frozen the planned new plants in Magdeburg (Germany) and Poland, slowing the pace even in the expansion of the mega-site in Ohio. Put differently: the group realigns investments to real demand. Not only that. Assembly and testing activities in Costa Rica will be consolidated into larger factories in Malesya and Vietnam. All in order to reduce costs and duplication.

Rationalisation, however, does not only concern the expansion of factories. The new course - in order not to disperse energy on too many fronts - maintains the focus on the Intel 18a project and aims to approach 14A with more circumspection. What is it all about? In general, the semiconductor industry is focused on the continuous miniaturisation of chips. A context in which the nanometre (one billionth of a metre) is used as a unit of measurement, typically referring to the gate size of the transistor. The smaller this becomes, the more transistors can be inserted into the chip, increasing its computing power.