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Transition: international pressure is mounting, but Italia is lagging behind

The 2026 report on the state of the green economy by the Sustainable Development Foundation. Key concerns include: rising emissions, slow uptake of renewables and the plastics crisis

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

‘We are seeing growing international momentum towards the transition. Although in Europe the rise of eco-scepticism risks calling into question both the EU as an institution and the European model itself. And in Italia, the green economy faces challenges in key areas: rising emissions, slow uptake of renewables, high water consumption; whilst there are some positive trends in the circular economy, these must still address the core issues of the plastics crisis.”

This is how Edo Ronchi, president of the Foundation for Sustainable Development, sums up the mixed picture of the progress of the transition, which will be presented on 3 November at the 2026 Green Economy General Assembly. Now in its 15th edition, the event – organised by the Foundation itself under the patronage of the Ministry for the Environment, the European Commission and the Ministry for Enterprise – is one of the opening events of the Ecomondo trade fair, which runs in Rimini until 6 November.

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“In a critical geopolitical context characterised by ongoing wars, growing economic difficulties, and regressive and denialist policies,” Ronchi emphasises, – “there is a very high and widespread risk of being swept along by narrow-minded views, offering illusory solutions that do not resolve the problems and thus fail to recognise the real priorities, opportunities and positive forces at work.”

The 2026 Report on the State of the Green Economy, on the other hand, begins precisely with these developments, which have emerged from the very same international crises, starting with rising energy prices: in 2026, Europe’s annual gas bill could exceed 240–250 billion euros (it stood at 40 billion in 2019), whilst the oil bill is set to rise by around 45 billion, according to the Foundation’s calculations. Hence the need for greater energy self-sufficiency, which depends on renewables. A similar dynamic applies to critical raw materials: the number of export restrictions imposed by various countries has increased fivefold between 2019 and 2024, leading to rising prices and supply difficulties. This is a situation that a more circular economy could help to address.

“The transition is not only a necessity but also an economic opportunity,” emphasises Ronchi, pointing out that nature is the foundation of our well-being and that the erosion of natural capital can undermine resources we take for granted. Ronchi cites the 2026 ‘State of Finance for Nature’ report by UNEP (the UN Environment Programme): “The decline in ecosystem services is having worrying economic impacts, starting with food production and soil fertility.”

The scenario also encompasses global trends that are already underway and set to expand in the future: the growth of renewables, the electrification of transport, and the use of AI for climate adaptation (although some issues remain to be resolved, such as the impact of data centres). Added to this, according to the report by the Foundation for Sustainable Development, is a greater awareness of the severity of the climate crisis. And what Ronchi calls ‘the green swan effect’: the transition itself represents a new opportunity for growth, in response to the economic costs of the climate crisis.

How does Italia fare in this context? The snapshot necessarily reflects the present and the recent past. ‘Greenhouse gas emissions rose last year and will fall this year, but only slightly. Over the last 10 years, we have seen an average reduction of 7 million tonnes per year, but to meet the target set by the Pniec, we would need to achieve a reduction of around 14 million tonnes between now and 2030 – effectively doubling the rate of reduction. In a country so severely affected by the climate crisis, this is a necessary focus,’ replies Ronchi. ‘The share of total renewables – not just electricity – in gross final consumption in 2024 stood at 19 per cent, compared with an EU average of 25 per cent, with growth over the last 10 years of 10 per cent, compared with 42.5 per cent across Europe. In transport, we stand at 10 per cent, whilst the Pniec calls for 34.2 per cent by 2030,” adds Ronchi. Regarding electricity from renewables, he notes that the share of total generation stands at 47 per cent, with a target of 70 per cent by 2030: “Last year we installed 7.2 GW of new capacity, compared with 23 GW in Germany and 11 GW in Spain. We would need to install 10 GW annually to meet the 2030 targets.”

And furthermore: ‘The area devoted to organic farming fell by 5.4 per cent in 2025 for the first time, after having risen by 59.3 per cent over the previous 10 years,’ explains Ronchi. And when it comes to water consumption, we’re not doing well at all: we use more water than any other European country, yet our per capita availability is less than half the European average. And the reuse of treated water stands at just 4 per cent, compared with a potential of 23 per cent.”

There are some positive figures regarding the circular economy, Ronchi points out: “We remain heavily dependent on imported materials, with a share of 47 per cent in 2025 compared with a European average of 22 per cent, and with Germany at 39 per cent. However, the rate of circular use of materials is good: 21.6 per cent, compared with an EU average of 12.2 per cent. And the overall waste recycling rate remains very high: 86 per cent, compared with an EU average of 41 per cent. Packaging recycling stands at 77.3 per cent, although there are challenges when it comes to plastics. WEEE collection, on the other hand, remains low and needs to be increased,’ adds Ronchi.

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