Internet from space: is Iris² really the European answer to Musk's Starlink?

Consisting of 292 satellites, Iris² will boast a unique feature: its equipment will be positioned partly in low earth orbits (264 at low altitude and 10 at high altitude) and partly in medium earth orbit. The satellites will be interconnected so that their arrangement will not force thousands of them around the Earth as is the case with Starlink, for example. The geostationary orbit will be covered by the Govsatcom constellation - to which Iris² belongs - scheduled to start in 2026.

Iris² will cost EUR 10.6 billion, six of which will come from the European Union. Another 550 million will be the contribution of the ESA, the European Space Agency. In this case, the funding will be led by the constellation's main supporter, France (for about 300 million), then by Germany, with 140 million, and Italy with 50 million. 'In an increasingly complex geopolitical context,' said Esa director general Josef Aschbacher, 'secure and resilient communications are essential. Esa will play a crucial role in the technical implementation of Iris², promoting innovation, competitiveness and employment in the European space sector."

The remaining 4.1 billion will come from SpaceRise, which in return for the investment will be able to commercialise the infrastructure services by selling them to private users. The regulation establishing the European Union's programme for secure connectivity states that 'commercial infrastructure [...] includes all space and ground-based assets other than those forming part of the government infrastructure. Commercial infrastructure does not compromise the performance or security of the government infrastructure. The commercial infrastructure and all related risks are fully financed by the contractors'. It is these considerations that add further criticality to Iris²'s already bumpy path.

During the summer, Thales and Airbus had made it known that they wished to withdraw from the SpaceRise consortium, preferring the safer role of subcontractors to risks they considered excessive.

It is now clear that the decision of two of the main operators of the European satellite ecosystem has not hindered the Iris² project, although the fear feared remains legitimate: the question is how the commercial partners of the constellation, namely Eutelsat, Ses and Hispasat, will intend to recoup their investment of 4.1 billion (i.e. 38% of the total costs). Not least because the services rendered to governments that have financed their share will also have to be 'provided free of charge to authorised users'.

The first option, the regulation suggests, is that the European Commission also buys services from the commercial infrastructure at market prices. The second is that the return lies in the construction of an infrastructure that Eutelsat, Hispasat and Ses had already planned, but which will now be financed by public resources. 'With the European Commission as the main customer of the constellation, the investment will allow us to enhance our capabilities in medium orbit, while respecting our rate of return [...] and returning liquidity to our shareholders,' indeed confirmed Adel Al-Saleh, CEO of Ses.

Put another way, for the operators of SpaceRise Iris² could be a (golden) opportunity to strengthen their in-orbit offerings, thanks to substantial European support. A bargain, from an economic point of view; and a hypothesis strengthened by what emerged in a technical meeting on the sidelines of the contract formalisation ceremony, when it was made known that only 25% of the constellation's capacity will be allocated to government requirements. The remaining three quarters will be available to commercial operators for their customers.

As pointed out by the independent website spacewatch.global, at this point, however, instead of disappearing, there would be at least two perplexities: 'Firstly,' asks Emma Gatti, 'is it justifiable for the European Union to finance 60 per cent of an infrastructure that it will only use for 25 per cent of its capacity? Essentially, taxpayers (assuming the European budget draws on public funds) would be subsidising, to a large extent, a private satellite network owned by the consortium. If so, will the consortium offer free services to European citizens in return?"

Second: "What specific commercial services does the consortium intend to sell, and to whom?". A question that is equally difficult to answer.

According to astronomer Jonathan McDowell, who monitors the constellation on his website, as of December 2024 there are 7568 Starlink satellites in orbit, of which more than 6 thousand are operational. The number of devices is growing steadily and SpaceX has permits to launch up to 12 thousand, with an extension to 42 thousand.

Access to the space internet 'by Musk', which is also available in Europe, now costs around 300 euros per month, and in 2024 alone SpaceX launched 300 modified satellites to test the 'direct to cell' service, with which mobile phones can be connected directly to space. It will be available from 2025.

This fact alone reiterates how SpaceX is likely to aim to become a space provider rather than a factory of extra-terrestrial rockets and hardware.

To make their offer competitive, SpaceRise operators will have to differentiate it, even make it unique, and without forgetting that the full operation of Iris², whose first satellites will be launched in 2029, is scheduled for 2030. A delay that, at the speed at which the sector is progressing, could be difficult to catch up.

"Iris² has different goals than Starlink," Esa sources reply to spacewatch.global, "the main difference is that we aim for secure connectivity services. In that sense, we do not expect to reach the commercial level of Starlink [...] The size of the constellation is more than adequate for the secure connectivity needs of the member states and can always be expanded'. Which suggests that this is only the beginning of an evolving programme and that, in the future, Iris² may be enriched with new satellites, additional services and third parties.

One certainty remains: from its first activation, the constellation will serve to prevent the Union from relying on a private, non-EU party to provide a strategic service. A private party that, for economic interests or geopolitical strategies, could deactivate the satellites at any time.

In this sense, yes, Iris² is the European answer to Starlink.