Intesa Sanpaolo, new plan in the offing: 50 billion to shareholders by 2029
As of 2029 net profit expected above EUR 11.5bn and costs under control at EUR 11.3bn. Payout ratio rises to 95%
by Luca Davi
Intesa Sanpaolo lifts the veil on its new three-year business plan. And it is a plan that is confirmed under the banner of strong growth and high profitability, with EUR 50 billion in distribution to shareholders in the period 2025-2029, a profit of EUR 11.5 billion in 2029 (from EUR 9.3 billion in 2025), an expected Roe of 22% and a Rote of 27%. The diversified, 'zero Npl' business model is confirmed, with a strong push on commissions and digital (with the launch of a European project).
Payout jumps to 95 per cent, 50 billion in distribution by 2029
The bank aims at strong value creation and distribution, minimising execution risk through cost measures. Net profit is seen growing to over EUR 11.5bn in 2029 from EUR 9.3bn in 2025. Profitability improves significantly with Roe at 22% and ROTE at 27% in 2029, up from 18% and 22% respectively in 2025. This will be done by maintaining high capitalisation with a Common Equity Tier 1 ratio target above 12.5% in each year of 2026-2029, confirming a solid capital structure throughout the plan horizon.
Overall, a total value creation of about EUR 500 billion is expected for all stakeholders in the period 2026-2029. And more specifically, a distribution of about EUR 50 billion is expected for shareholders in 2025-2029. The payout ratio will increase significantly from the current 70 per cent to 95 per cent in each year of the 2026-2029 period: 75 per cent will be in cash dividends and 20 per cent buybacks. Any further distributions will be assessed year by year from 2027 onwards.
Expenditure down: cost/income at 36.8%
The group led by CEO Carlo Messina expects a structural reduction in costs, thanks to the technology investments already made. Operating costs fall to EUR 11.3bn in 2029 from EUR 11.5bn in 2025 (-0.5% CAGR), despite EUR 0.7bn in growth costs over the period. Cumulative savings amount to 1.6 billion, with the cost/income ratio improving to 36.8% from 42.2% in 2025.
More than 12,000 exits and 6300 hires planned
In terms of employment, Intesa expects an acceleration of internal turnover, but without social impacts. It expects a reduction of about 6,100 people in the group by 2029 (in addition to the reduction of about 3,900 in 2025) and related cost savings of about EUR 570 million by 2030, as a result of about 12,400 exits (of which about 9,750 in Italy for voluntary exits including natural turnover and about 2,650 net exits for natural turnover in international subsidiaries) and about 6,300 young people hired in Italy by 2030 (of which about 2,300 as Global Advisors. in addition to about 1,300 in 2025. About 10,000 qualifications or retraining, 8,000 young people involved in dedicated development programmes and about 20,000 people per year engaged in transformational training and academy programmes are planned.
