Intesa towards the plan: focus on savings and dividends

The roots are firmly planted in Italy, but the growth trajectory is increasingly oriented beyond its borders. With these basic premises, Intesa Sanpaolo is preparing to present its new business plan, which CEO Carlo Messina will illustrate on Monday morning together with the 2025 accounts. An appointment awaited by the market not so much for a strategic turning point, but for the confirmation of a model that in recent years has guaranteed high profitability, low volatility of profits and a risk profile among the lowest in the European banking scene.

Inevitably, the strategy presupposes organic growth, also due to the Antitrust constraints that limit extraordinary operations on the domestic market. "Intesa Sanpaolo's position will remain the same," Messina recently reiterated, archiving M&A hypotheses and confirming a continuity that the market seems to appreciate. And in terms of numbers, the plan - which, in terms of scope and executive complexity, naturally appears aligned with the current governance structure, whose mandate expires a year earlier, at the end of 2028 - sees the 2025 results as the starting point. On Monday the already known targets will be tested, starting with a net profit 'well above' 9 billion, a net Npl ratio of 1% and a Cet1 of 13.9%. They will start from here to raise the bar. A far from easy challenge, it must be said, given a macroeconomic scenario that is, to say the least, uncertain and an Italian economy experiencing moderate growth. This is why Intesa will have to focus on its distinctive factors to go further and improve on the - already challenging - results achieved so far, which have returned EUR 22 billion to shareholders between 2021 and 2025. To do this, the strategy envisages an orderly evolution of business lines. No changes from the past, therefore, but the strengthening of the current business model, typical of a 'Wealth management & protection company', in order to balance the volatility of the interest margin, underpinning this with a low-risk execution strategy.

Italy will continue to represent the group's backbone, thanks to a strengthening of disbursements, consistent with its role as the leading credit operator in terms of volumes disbursed and strong with a base of about 14 million customers under Banca dei Territori. And the engine of development remains commissions, also to balance interest margins whose peak is now behind us. There is therefore room for acceleration on the wealth management and private banking front, leveraging product factories - from Eurizon to Fideuram - and increasing integration with the network. On the insurance front, leadership in life insurance will be defended and strengthened, while for growth potential we look to non-motor non-life, a segment that is still relatively underpenetrated but strategic for revenue stability.

The group's international dimension will be strengthened. On the one hand with the strengthening of the Cib in the most dynamic areas and segments; on the other hand with an enhancement of the International Banks division, which operates in 12 countries in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa and has already contributed around one billion in profit in the first nine months. Decisive in this sense will be technological integration, through the extension of the Isytech platform, to create commercial (and cost) synergies with the group.

And technology represents one of the key hubs of the plan. The new investments on Isytech will allow further operational efficiencies, in a group that already has a cost/income ratio (38.9%) among the best in Europe. Obviously, the cost improvement will also pass through new voluntary redundancy programmes, while maintaining the focus on employment protection. Maximum attention will also be paid to the risk front, thanks to extremely prudent credit management and the possibility of further derisking operations, including through Srt securitisations.