Infrastructure

Strait of Messina: from investments to tolls, here are all the numbers of the bridge

The bridge over the Strait of Messina is destined to be much more than just an infrastructure, because it may be the choice on which the direction to be given to the economic policy of an entire area of the country depends.

by Carmine Fotina

6' min read

6' min read

It debates, it divides. And it is likely to do so for a long time to come. The bridge over the Strait of Messina is destined to be much more than a simple piece of infrastructure, because it may be the choice on which the direction to be given to the economic policy of an entire area of the country depends. For this reason, too, a debate based on numbers is essential, without neglecting an estimate that has been little discussed: the drastic drop in population that the very area of the country most affected by the project, the Mezzogiorno, will see between now and 2070.

1. Traffic: estimated 30% growth to 2062

On 6 August, CIPESS (the Interministerial Committee for Economic Planning and Sustainable Development) approved the final design of the bridge. The decision followed the signing of the additional deed to the contract between the Concessionary Company Stretto di Messina and the General Contractor Eurolink, led by Webuild.

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It is now the turn of the Court of Auditors to give its opinion, and a few days ago the Minister of Transport Infrastructure Matteo Salvini said he expected a green light in about a month. Most of the figures to be examined are contained in the Economic and Financial Plan and its annexes, which extend over a time horizon of 38 years (2025-20262), of which eight years of design and construction (2025-2032, with a tail end of investment in 2033) and 20 years of management (2033-2062). The investment, net of planned public contributions, is amortised by the expiry of the concession with no take-over value.

The study carried out by the company Tplan consulting, attached to the Pef, conservatively forecasts for traffic, for the years of the concession period after 2032 (when the work is expected to come into operation), for both passengers and freight, an average annual growth rate of 1% until 2062, with a cumulative increase of more than 30%.

2. The Dipe's doubts: the node in the South: -32% of inhabitants in 2070

In a preparatory note for the CIPESS meeting that gave the go-ahead for the final project for the bridge, the Dipe, i.e., the Department for Planning and Coordination of Economic Policy under Palazzo Chigi, dwelt on this estimate. The Dipe asked for the reasons behind this estimate to be specified, noting that - according to ISTAT projections on the country's demographic trends - there will be a sharp reduction in the population of southern Italy over the same period, in the order of 32% by 2070. In response to the Dipe's observations, the company Tplan Consulting has updated its study, adding that until 2032 passenger mobility is expected to grow by 1.5% per year and freight traffic by 2%, while in the following years a prudent increase of 1% for both components would still be possible, as the study highlights, however, "how the growth in mobility is not strictly related to demographic dynamics or regional GDP, but is rather influenced by structural and systemic factors - such as links with the rest of the country, tourist demand and the evolution of the transport offer - that have historically supported the increase in flows, even in contexts of demographic contraction or local economic stagnation". Conclusions that were shared by the Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport.

3. Revenues: from tolls expected 300 million to 2062

The traffic estimates are the basis for the toll revenue estimates. Starting with one figure: the revenue from the project in the operational phase is expected to be 162.8 million in 2033 and 336.4 million in 2062. The latter figure will be made up of 300.4 million in toll revenues for the road crossing and the remainder from railway fee revenues and the territorial continuity contribution currently received by Rfi (Rete ferroviaria italiana) for Sicily.

4. Fares: for cars 3.9 euro one-day round trip

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The operating tariffs indicated in the Pef under approval - notes the Dipe in its note - provide for a discount compared to current levels of about 80% in the case of motorbikes and cars, and 20% for vans and trucks. In detail, user tariffs (per route, VAT included at 2024 values) are envisaged for motorbikes at €1.79; for cars at €3.93 (one-day return), €4.49 (return within three days) or €7.14 (return within 90 days); for local public transport buses at €7.2; for long-distance buses at €33.4. As for goods, they range from EUR 45.7 per route for vans to EUR 102.4 for lorries. In the calculations there is also the estimate, limited to 2033, of transits: in total just over 4.5 million vehicles of which almost 2.3 million are cars and just under 1 million trucks.

5. The structure: single span 3,300 metres long

The bridge, which will have a design life of 200 years, will have a central span length of 3,300 metres, compared to an overall length of 3,666 metres. The width of the deck will amount to 60.4 metres, the height of the towers will be 399 metres. Two pairs of cables are planned for the suspension system, with a total length of 5,320 metres and a diameter of 1.26 metres, and anchoring blocks amounting to 533,000 square metres. The central navigable channel for the transit of large ships will be 65 metres high.

6. The capacity: 6 thousand vehicles per hour and 200 trains per day

The project consists of two lanes plus one emergency lane for road traffic, in each direction, with a total capacity of 6,000 vehicles/hour. Two railway tracks and pavements are added, for an infrastructure capacity of 200 trains/day. Also included are the road and rail connection works on the Calabrian and Sicilian sides (a total of 20.3 km of road links and 20.2 km of rail links), mostly in tunnels, to ensure the connection to the new route of the Salerno-Reggio Calabria motorway and the future Naples-Reggio Calabria high-speed section, on the one hand, and to the Messina-Catania and Messina-Palermo motorway sections on the other.

7. The cost: 13.5 billion investment plan

The total amount of the investment is calculated at EUR 13.532 billion. Of this, EUR 10.508 billion relates to the awarding of the contract to the general contractor, which in turn is divided between EUR 9.242 billion of works and EUR 1.266 billion of amounts not subject to rebate, such as, for example, safety costs (EUR 203.3 million), engineering services and monitoring activities (EUR 304.8 million), and works and compensatory measures for the territorial and social impact (EUR 267 million). Then there are almost 3 billion of other costs (of which 1.9 billion appear as sums at the contractor's disposal), including specialised works management activities, environmental monitoring, reclamation of areas from polluting materials, anti-sabotage inspection devices, surveillance activities and archaeological surveys, and charges for the legality protocol.

8. Maintenance: extraordinary expenditure of 1.64 billion

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The annual operating costs over the period 2033-2062 are estimated at about EUR 80 million, of which about EUR 6 million for ordinary maintenance of the works, about EUR 24 million for personnel costs, and EUR 50 million for other costs. Then there is the chapter on extraordinary maintenance, estimated at EUR 1.64 billion between 2034 and 2060: an estimate that - the Pef Report specifies - was made in light of the experience of international operators that manage the maintenance of large suspension bridges in Denmark, Turkey and Japan. In particular, the complete resurfacing of the pavements every 5 years, the replacement of 20% of the road barriers every 15 years, the resurfacing of 50% of the paintwork every 15 years, and the replacement of the mechanical systems and installations also every 15 years is envisaged. The total value of the investment, including extraordinary maintenance, amounts in the documentation examined by Dipe and Cipess to just over EUR 15.3 billion, to which must be added the net investment in revertible assets of the Stretto di Messina company for EUR 189.7 million.

9. The coverage: from the Development and Cohesion Fund 6.2 billion

More than half of the project's financial coverage - a total of EUR 13.532 billion - was earmarked in the 2024 budget law, which was supplemented the following year (EUR 6.962 billion). A significant share, however, comes from the Development and Cohesion Fund, the large national fund for cohesion policies and the reduction of territorial disparities, 80% of which is earmarked for the South with the aim of financing capital expenditure for interventions that must have the character of being additional to ordinary State expenditure. From the FSC, in particular, €4.6 billion is drawn for the bridge in the amount of €4.6 billion for the central government's share of the 2021-2027 programming and €1.6 billion for the share of the Regions of Sicily and Calabria, also 2021-27. A further 370 million of coverage instead refers to the capital increase of Stretto di Messina spa reserved to the Ministry of the Economy and realised on 27 December 2023.

10. Related works: 500 million dowry expected at the CIPESS

Out of these calculations is the expenditure, totalling 500 million euro, already authorised by the 2024 Budget Law for related works, as identified by CIPESS on the basis of the proposals forwarded by Salvini's ministry at the outcome of the Services Conference, but not included in the decisions submitted to the Committee at the beginning of August. It is now expected that this list of works, with the release of the related 500 million, will also arrive on the table of the CIPESS.

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