Iran déjà vu: all of Trump’s bluff attacks (and U-turns)

But late on Saturday evening, Trump stated on social media that there were signs of progress towards reaching an agreement and that he would, for the time being, suspend plans to launch further large-scale attacks.

The following day, Trump emphasised that calls to give diplomacy more time – made by anonymous Iranian officials and the leaders of the Gulf allies – Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – were decisive in his change of course. “It would have been disastrous for them. And they didn’t want us to do it,” said the White House occupant.

Throughout the conflict, there were several occasions on which Trump demonstrated his propensity for belligerence, only to back down at the last minute, whilst claiming that his threats had spurred progress.

In early April, the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in an announcement made less than two hours before the deadline Trump had set for Tehran to capitulate or face attacks on bridges and power stations. Attacks which, according to him, would have meant ‘the death of an entire civilisation’.

Following days of fierce threats against Iran, Trump announced on 18 May that he would call off a major military strike that had already been planned because ‘serious negotiations’ were under way, crediting his Gulf allies with having persuaded him to show restraint.

Then, in June, Trump threatened to strike Iran ‘very hard’ and to seize the Iranian energy base on the island of Kharg in order to ‘take total control of their oil and gas markets’, only to then backtrack on social media, stating that peace negotiations had made progress with high-level Iranian leaders.

What the president failed to mention was that such an undertaking would have required the deployment of US troops on the ground in Iran. A politically risky proposal for a president who based his election campaign on avoiding foreign entanglements and criticised previous administrations for becoming bogged down in endless wars.

With this latest episode – the fourth since the start of the war – Trump has made it clear that the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman played a particularly important role in persuading him not to escalate the conflict. The sheikh is said to have pointed out to the tycoon that an escalation of the fighting could have serious repercussions for the global economy if Tehran were to respond to a new US bombing raid by targeting some of the United States’ allies in the Gulf.

Bear in mind that in November there will be the elections Midterm elections in November, and that, according to an AP poll, around two-thirds of US adults believe that in the war against Iran, which began on 28 February, the game wasn’t worth the proverbial ‘candle’. When it comes to polls, be careful not to ask the President questions that are too explicit: he’ll reply that it’s all ‘fake news’. The real poll figures show me at an all-time high – and how could it be otherwise, given the biggest tax cuts and the best employment figures ever, the largest foreign investment in US history, a completely secure border, a crushing victory in Venezuela, the denuclearisation of Iran, unrivalled respect and success around the world, and much more besides?”, he writes in a post on Truth. Because ‘The Donald’ knows what to do: keep up the bluff, as long as it holds. Or at least seems to hold.