Flights to Iran, US sanctions: the first day of implementation amid challenges and concessions

In Iraq, the Iranian civil aviation authority is diverting flights to Baghdad to Najaf Airport (also in Iraq), meaning that Iranian flights remain on schedule according to the Tehran International Airport website. The Iraqi government has not yet commented on the matter. According to Iranian media, Oman is, however, holding talks with the regime regarding the flights.

According to Iranian media, flights to a number of destinations remain available, including China, Thailand, Turkey, Armenia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Najaf (Iraq) and Dubai (United Arab Emirates).

In China, a flight operated by Mahan Air landed as scheduled in Guangzhou. On Tuesday 22 September, the country stated that it opposed the US sanctions, describing them as ‘unilateral and illegal’. This stance contrasts with the comments made by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who, following talks with Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng, had described Chinese officials as ‘very involved’ in the sanctions campaign against Iran.

In Turkey, Mahan Air has suspended its flights at the request of the Turkish authorities, but other Iranian airlines continue to operate there. Flights operated by Varesh Airlines and Iran Airtour have landed in the city of Izmir. A subsequent check revealed that, of the at least seven Iranian commercial flights scheduled for Istanbul today, only the Mahan Air flight had been cancelled. Flights operated by the state-owned airline Iran Air are also running; on Tuesday 22 September, the airline stated that it had not been informed of any flight ban from Turkey, Azerbaijan or Iraq preventing it from serving these countries.

In Thailand, the chairman of Airports of Thailand Public Company Limited (AOT), which operates ten international airports, has stated that he cannot suspend flights that comply with international procedures. “We have not received any regulations or directives from the Thai government or the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, so we have no choice but to accept them,” he said. Sarun Benjanirat, Deputy Director-General for Aviation Economic Development at the Thai Civil Aviation Authority, also reported that the regulatory body had not received any government instructions to ground flights.

“Iranian airlines will not be able to receive fuel or ground handling services, nor will tickets be sold for their flights,” Bessent had stated when announcing the sanctions on Monday 21 September, specifying that anyone failing to comply with the ban risks exclusion from the US dollar system, that is, a total ban on carrying out commercial and financial transactions in that currency.

This results in the loss of access to dollar-denominated accounts and global payment systems. Foreign banks must therefore sever ties with sanctioned entities to avoid being cut off themselves. The practical consequence is a freeze on payments: it becomes impossible to use credit cards, receive bank transfers or pay for essential commodities such as oil. Affected companies can no longer operate on international markets, and third parties that assist sanctioned entities risk facing the same exclusion.

The sanctions form part of Operation ‘Economic Outcast’, the campaign of economic pressure that the US launched against Iran this summer, in the (ultimately futile) hope of subduing the regime without resuming hostilities, which then flared up again at the end of August. The operation, however, continues: in early September, the United States imposed sanctions on 27 Iranian airlines and a further nine foreign entities (including intermediaries in the UAE, Turkey, Malaysia and Kazakhstan) linked to Mahan Air, a company which, according to Washington, had helped Tehran to acquire American aircraft and components by circumventing sanctions, as well as transporting personnel, weapons and military equipment for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The first day of aviation sanctions has revealed a patchy level of compliance, ranging from countries that are complying fully, such as Georgia, or partially, such as Iraq, to those openly defying the restrictions, such as China, and those remaining in a regulatory limbo, such as Thailand. The Iranian aviation sector has been the target of sanctions for years, and it is still unclear what the full impact will be and which other countries will comply. But Rezaei’s threat changes the stakes, introducing the risk of direct retaliation by Iran against the civil aviation sectors of neighbouring countries – with Iraq, Oman, Georgia and Azerbaijan at the forefront – precisely those countries that have so far complied or are negotiating with Tehran. These countries will have to choose whether to fall in line with the US sanctions, risking retaliation against their own airports, or to continue accepting Iranian flights, thereby defying Washington. The new balance of power in the region’s aviation sector will depend on this choice.