The Frozen War

Iran, pressure from Pakistan and Qatar for peace agreement

The Pakistani mediator Munir has flown to Tehran, dalso from Doha. According to the Arab media, an agreement is imminent but Tehran denies it

from our correspondent in New York Marco Valsania

Il capo dell’esercito pakistano, Asim Munir (a sinistra) ricevuto a Teheran dal ministro dell’Interno iraniano Eskandar Momeni REUTERS

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

Diplomatic pressure from Pakistan and Qatar to wrest Tehran to an agreement with the US that would avert the resumption of a war that is devastating to the region and increasingly dangerous to the global economy.

The influential Pakistani army chief Syed Asim Munir, according to rumours, flew to Iran with the mission of finalising an at least provisional understanding to replace the current fragile truce. Also arriving in Tehran was a delegation from Doha, which until now has remained on the sidelines and is now supposedly coordinating an entry into the field with Washington.

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At the heart of the face-to-face talks is a letter of intent calling for an immediate end to all fighting, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and guidelines for a 30-day negotiating phase that would work out the details of the hottest chapters, from Tehran's nuclear programme to the fate of its enriched uranium stockpile, from peace guarantees to the future of Hormuz and the phasing out of heavy US sanctions on Iran. The Saudi TV network Al-Arabiya said that a final ceasefire text, a draft of which it had seen, could be ready within hours.

The suspense over the outcome of the intense manoeuvres was however underlined by the official silence so far of the protagonists. From the Foreign Ministry in Islamabad, spokesmen indicated until the last that they were "not aware of a visit" from Iran by Munir, although they did not rule it out after days of lower-level meetings.

Not only that. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei warned that if the dialogue continues, 'we cannot say that an agreement is imminent'. And the Iranian negotiating delegation reaffirmed that 'Tehran demands respect for its rights'. Although the country's media, perhaps as a sign of détente, revealed that 35 cargo ships had transited Hormuz in the last 24 hours, with the Iranian navy coordinating, more than on any other day. Hours earlier they had spoken of a narrowing of differences between the parties.

Cautious optimism was expressed by the US administration. President Donald Trump claimed that Tehran would 'desperately' want to come to terms, adding an ambiguous 'we will see'. On Iran 'there has been small progress, movement, and that is positive', Secretary of State Marco Rubio pointed out from the NATO summit in Sweden. Although he said "we do not want to exaggerate them" and that Iranian demands such as a toll in Hormuz remain unacceptable. Tehran is negotiating such a mechanism with Oman. Rubio reiterated the main US diktat: Tehran cannot have an atomic weapon.

For the Trump administration, a non-military solution to the crisis appears an increasingly desirable goal. Domestic pressure for a stop to the conflict is growing, including rare rebellions in the ranks of the Republican majority in Congress: in the House, a vote on a motion prohibiting Trump from continuing the war without parliamentary authorisation was cancelled because it would have been passed.

The energy shock caused by the blockade of Hormuz meanwhile forced Americans to spend an extra $44.8 billion on gasoline and diesel alone, amounting to $190.47 per household and 4.2 per cent of the income of the poorer classes. Consumer confidence plunged in May to a new all-time low of 44.8 according to the University of Michigan index. And a Gallup poll found that only 16% of voters, a negative record since 2022, describe economic conditions as good or excellent, 49% rate them as bad.

Inflation also neutralises assumptions of monetary policy assistance, clamoured for by the White House, to a weakened expansion and labour market. If anything, the futures markets are betting on an interest rate hike within the year. Not even the arrival of Trump's new Federal Reserve chairman, Kevin Warsh, who was sworn in yesterday to take office, will be able to circumvent these concerns.

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