Letter to savers

Iren: it’s not just about Bitcoin – artificial intelligence is the new focus

The company processes cryptocurrency transactions and is looking to diversify. The share has very high valuations and remains sensitive to the volatility of the digital asset

6' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

6' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

Diversification is a well-known strategy in finance, aimed primarily at reducing risk. When it comes to business models, however, it is often used to identify new sources of revenue and, consequently, profitability. This is the case with IREN Limited. The US group, listed on the Nasdaq, has for some time now been working towards a more diversified business structure. What does this involve? To answer this question, we must first consider the group’s corporate purpose.

TRIMESTRI A CONFRONTO

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The company is primarily involved in what is known as ‘bitcoin mining’. This involves operating data centres where specialised hardware (ASICs or GPUs) is used to solve complex cryptographic calculations that validate blocks on the Bitcoin blockchain, in return for a reward in the form of the leading cryptocurrency’s tokens. In particular, in the first half of 2025, the company achieved an installed mining capacity of approximately 50 EH/s (exahashes per second) of computing power, a figure that ranks it amongst the world’s largest public miners. Its reported efficiency is around 15 J/TH, thanks to the use of low-cost electricity from renewable sources and the vertical integration of its infrastructure.

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STORIA DEI RICAVI

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The halving

That said, it must be borne in mind that the mining business is subject to volatility: the price of Bitcoin, regulation, energy costs and competitiveness are all risk factors. But that is not all. A further uncertainty (which encourages diversification) is – according to various experts – the so-called ‘halving’. That is to say: the event scheduled to take place every four years on the Bitcoin network. When it occurs, the reward that miners – including IREN – receive for validating a block is halved. The aim? To limit the number of new tokens entering circulation, thereby keeping the cryptocurrency scarce over time. With fewer bitcoins being produced, the supply grows more slowly. The halving is therefore a mechanism that helps to preserve – through a deflationary effect – the value of the digital asset in the long term. The most recent halving took place on 19 April 2024 and resulted in a reduction from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoins per validated block. That said, it is clear that, as a side effect, this has an impact on miners’ profitability.

Of course! Blockchain exchange validators optimise operations in order to maintain profit margins. For example, on the infrastructure front, IREN has signed an agreement for a 600 MW grid connection in Texas, bringing its ‘Sweetwater’ hub to a total capacity of 2.75 GW in West Texas. This provides access to low-cost, high-quality energy, in an ideal environment for high-volume, low-cost mining. Furthermore, the group has focused on more efficient machinery which – together with greater economies of scale – aims to keep the unit cost of bitcoin mining down. However, evidently, such measures do not appear to be sufficient for the company.

STORIA DELLA REDDITIVITÀ

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Diversification

The group is therefore – as mentioned – developing a strategy for greater diversification: alongside traditional mining, a plan has been launched to provide cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) services, high-performance computing (HPC) infrastructure, GPU clusters and next-generation data centres. The project has already begun to have an impact on the profit and loss account over the last two financial years. According to Bloomberg, in the 2022–2023 financial year, adjusted revenue generated by AI-related cloud computing accounted for 1.6 per cent. In the following financial year, the share of this segment rose to 3.3 per cent. One might say: these percentages are still modest. True! However, on the one hand, the rate of growth is by no means insignificant; and, on the other, one must consider the cost of sales (also adjusted). That relating to the core validation business accounted for 99.17 per cent of the total in 2024, whilst for AI cloud computing it stood at just 0.83 per cent. In the first quarter of 2025–2026, the ‘cost of revenue’ for bitcoin mining stood at 79.9 million, compared with 0.7 million for cloud computing. Put another way: the profit margin that can be expected from the new business is predictably higher than that of traditional validation. It is therefore no surprise that IREN has placed its bets on AI.

LA LIQUIDITÀ

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The agreement with Microsoft

This move has been confirmed by the recent agreement between the ‘miners’ and Microsoft. The agreement is complex. Firstly, it stipulates that IREN will supply the Redmond-based group with access to NVIDIA GB300 GPUs over the next five years, with a total value of approximately 9.7 billion dollars (including a 20 per cent advance payment). Furthermore, the crypto firm has undertaken to purchase – for 5.8 billion – the GPUs and ancillary equipment required for the entire operation from Dell Technologies. In short: if the advance payments and expected cash flows materialise as forecast, the partnership should bolster IREN’s business. On closer inspection, the market reacted in a nuanced manner to the announcement of the agreement. Initially, in the wake of the deal, enthusiasm prevailed during the trading session on 3 November (+11.5 per cent). The upward trend continued and strengthened on 5 November, when the share price rose by a further 14.6 per cent, buoyed by the covering of short positions and expectations of more stable long-term revenues.

However – over the following two days – IREN saw much of the aforementioned rise on the Nasdaq wiped out. The reason? Analysts began to consider the scale of the investment required to implement the agreement and the need for further funding. In other words: the initial enthusiasm for the strategic news was followed by a more careful examination of the operational costs and the financial risk profile.

The quarterly figures themselves confirmed the need to proceed with caution. Whilst IREN did report revenue in excess of estimates, its profitability was a mixed picture. On the one hand, the group posted an operating loss; on the other, it achieved a net profit of 384.6 million. This performance can be explained as follows: operating income was weighed down – above all – by the depreciation of major investments in AI-related infrastructure. Net profit, on the other hand, was underpinned by the revaluation of financial instruments linked to multi-year contracts for the supply of GPUs and cloud services, which generated an unrealised gain of 665 million dollars. This effect more than offset the impact of operating costs, keeping net profit in positive territory. In short: this is an example of an income statement representative of a company that is – quite literally – undergoing a transformation. And, in the face of this, the DIY investor has a duty to exercise great, great caution.

Stock market multiples

This is also because – as well as being a volatile stock – IREN’s shares are characterised by extremely high multiples. An example? According to Seeking Alpha, the non-GAAP P/E ratio for the current financial year is 67.8 times. And that’s not all. The EV/Sales ratio and the EV/EBITDA ratio are also higher than those of the benchmark sector. True! At the moment, several high-tech companies boast ‘nonsensical’ multiples and, despite this, continue to rise. And yet, beyond the many warnings about a possible bubble in artificial intelligence-related shares, it is clear that a company like IREN cannot be considered a long-term hold. Firstly, because the high multiples are – inevitably – also the result of a significant rally in the share price itself: since the start of the year, the share price has risen by 581.8 per cent. And secondly, because the transformation currently underway itself implies uncertainty regarding the final outcome.

The sector

That said, it should nevertheless be noted that virtually the entire bitcoin mining sector is working towards the same goal. Cipher Mining, for example, has entered into a ten-year agreement worth around $3 billion with Fluidstack – a company specialising in AI infrastructure, backed by Google – to lease part of its computing capacity to clients in the artificial intelligence sector. Against this backdrop, the sector’s ETF has grown far more than Bitcoin itself by 2025. A trend which – according to various analysts – could attract attention. However, two considerations must always be borne firmly in mind. The first is that – now more than ever – venture capital investors must ask themselves, before hoping for capital gains: how much are you prepared to lose? And the second is to assess one’s own risk appetite.

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The US group IREN should not be confused with the Italian multi-utility company Iren.

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