Istat: 'Demographic winter affects 30% of companies. Generational changeover at risk'

Beginning with those born in the 1960s, a process of progressive convergence, below two children per woman, is noted in all the divisions, writes ISTAT. In the North, the 1933 generation was already below two children per woman, in the Centre the 1939 generation; in the South, on the other hand, you have to go as far as the 1961 generation. But the important fact is that in the transition from the hypothetical generation of mothers born in 1958 to that of their hypothetical daughters born in 1983, who are now over 40, the proportion of childless women doubles (from 13 per cent to an estimated 26 per cent), with a peak of about three out of ten women in the South. At the same time, there is a marked postponement of the age at which the first child is born, which increases the risk of having fewer children than expected or no children at all.

Significant differences between generations become apparent when considering lifestyles. Starting with those born in the 1950s, continuous improvements in health-related behaviour can be observed: smoking rates are falling and attention to sport is growing. Alongside these positive signs, however, new criticalities are emerging: cases of overweight and obesity are increasing from childhood onwards, new forms of smoking are spreading (electronic cigarettes, heated tobacco products), and drunkenness, mainly due to the consumption of spirits, is a cause for concern among the youngest. The age at which people become elderly has also moved forward: 75-year-olds today can expect to live on average the same number of years as 64-year-olds in the 1950s.

But this progress is not uniform: gaps linked to territory, gender and socio-economic status remain marked. It is especially in the most fragile territories, such as the Inner Areas, that ageing is intertwined with depopulation, low fertility, youth emigration and reduced attractiveness for migratory flows from abroad. In these contexts, the presence of elderly people living alone is more frequent and risks making the informal support network (family, friends, neighbourhood) on which they can rely even more fragile than elsewhere. A crucial element marking the new generations of the elderly is the increase in human capital: today better educated than in the past, the new elderly live on average better, active for longer and with greater cultural resources. However, inequalities also emerge on this front, with the Inner Areas having a lower share of population with medium-high qualifications than the Centres. This disadvantage is reflected, more generally, in individual well-being.

Regarding the substantial loss of purchasing power associated with inflation in 2021-2022, ISTAT notes that the average labour income per employed person in 2024 is lower than in 2004. Over the same period, the increase in labour participation, the reduction in household size and the greater diffusion of home ownership more than offset this reduction in terms of equivalent household income. The effects in terms of loss of purchasing power of wages were, however, very different depending on the specific period considered. Between 2019 and 2021, even with very weak wage growth due to the substantial bargaining freeze brought about by the pandemic emergency, the reduction in purchasing power was rather limited, because it was concomitant with a period of low inflation. From the second half of 2021, on the other hand, the surge in energy commodity prices brought inflation to levels not seen since the 1980s (up to 12.6 per cent in October-November 2022), and wage dynamics were slow to adjust to the changed and unexpectedly high inflation scenario. Wage dynamics therefore remained particularly subdued until the end of 2022, accelerating only thereafter. The loss in purchasing power per employee with respect to January 2019, which from 2021 became increasingly significant until it exceeded 15 per cent at the end of 2022, was reduced to 8.7 per cent in February 2025, thanks to contract renewals and the deceleration of inflation, but rose again - as mentioned - to 10.0 per cent in March.

President Chelli noted that the most important transformation in changing occupational characteristics and opportunities between generations is education. In 1980, almost half of all young people between the ages of 15 and 24 were in the labour force, while among their peers in 2024, one in four are active and more than two-thirds are inactive because they are still in education or training. Moreover,' added Chelli, 'between the early 1990s and 2023, the share of university graduates among 25-34 year-olds rose from 7 per cent to over 30 per cent, and up to 37.1 among women, who in this age group have achieved employment rates similar to those of their university-educated peers. "Thus, in the individual perspective, the effect of the fall in real income between 2004 and 2024 is mitigated by its increase over the active life cycle, in particular due to the premium of investment in education, which now extends to a larger share of adults. The growth in female employment has also made it possible to compensate at household level for the reduction in individual incomes'. The Report - he recalled - also investigates the relationship between population ageing and the evolution of the production system. In economic activity as a whole, general population dynamics and the postponement of the retirement age have led to a progressive ageing of the workforce between 2011 and 2022. "However, schooling, which is much higher among new entrants than among those who have retired, has led to an increase in the level of education of 0.7 equivalent years of study per employee, which corresponds to a growth of more than five percentage points in the share of university graduates among the employed, from 14.1 to 19.4 per cent.