Istat

GDP slows in Q2: -0.1%. Giorgetti: reaffirm 0.6 % growth this year

For the Minister of the Economy, the impact of the 15% tariffs on Italian GDP will be 'a maximum cumulative drop of 0.5 points in 2026' followed by 'a gradual recovery'.

by Rome Editorial Staff

30 July 2025

L’Istat ha pubblicato la stima preliminare del Pil nel secondo trimestre del 2025

2' min read

Key points

GDP acquired for 2025 +0.5%
Both primary and industrial sectors decline
Giorgetti: reaffirm GDP growth of 0.6% in 2025
"Tariffs impact on GDP 0.5 points in 2026"
Germany: GDP drops by 0.1%
France GDP beats expectations, +0.3% in quarter

2' min read

ISTAT estimates that in the second quarter of 2025, the Italian economy will be 0.1% lower than in the first quarter of the year and 0.4% higher than in the second quarter of 2024. The trend growth is decelerating compared to 0.7% in the first quarter of the year.

GDP acquired for 2025 +0.5%

The growth estimate for 2025, the statistics agency explains, is 0.5 per cent, the same as that released with the release of the full quarterly accounts for the first quarter of the year.

Both primary and industrial sectors

The estimate of the cyclical change in GDP released today, Wednesday 30 July, the nature of which is preliminary, reflects a decrease in both the primary and industrial sectors, while the services sector was essentially stationary for the three months as a whole. On the demand side, the domestic component, measured before inventories, is growing, while there is a substantial decrease in the net foreign component.

Giorgetti: reaffirm GDP growth of 0.6 % in 2025

In the spring Dfp, the government 'made prudent forecasts and predicted a growth of 0.6 per cent, which we reiterate today,' said Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti, replying to the question time in the Chamber of Deputies, in light of Istat's GDP data for the second quarter of 2025.

"Tariffs impact on GDP 0.5 points in 2026"

The impact of tariffs at 15% on Italian GDP will be 'a maximum cumulative drop of 0.5 points in 2026' followed by 'a gradual recovery' and a realignment to the baseline scenario, Giorgetti said again, responding to the question time at the Chamber of Deputies. For the minister, talking now about initiatives to counter the effects of tariffs on companies 'is premature'. In Scotland, he explained, 'a political agreement' has been reached that has yet to be detailed. A trade war has been averted and a phase of uncertainty has been closed, but 'an overall assessment cannot be made today'.

Germany: GDP drops by 0.1%

As far as other European countries are concerned, GDP in Germany dropped by 0.1 per cent in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the first three months of the year. This was announced by the Federal Statistical Office. Whereas at the beginning of the year the German economy was showing signs of recovery, with the gross domestic product growing by 0.3% in the first quarter, today the Federal Statistical Office has certified that it is slowing down: in the second quarter of the year, the GDP fell by 0.1%, with the decline in investment in construction being the main factor. Compared to 2024, the second quarter of 2025 shows no difference, remaining at the same level, but with one fewer working day in 2025, the Federal Statistical Office calculates that a 0.4% growth is observed.

France GDP beats expectations, +0.3% in the quarter

Instead, the French economy grew. In the second quarter of the year, France's GDP grew by 0.3% compared to the first quarter of 2025, when growth stopped at 0.1%. Year-on-year growth, reported the Insee, the French statistics institute, was 0.7%, compared to 0.6% in the first quarter. The figure exceeded economists' expectations, who had expected growth of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and 0.5% year-on-year.