Cars alone are not enough: production down 1% in June, down 0.6% year-on-year

A picture that remains one of mixed fortunes, because whilst it is true that, in a complex period such as the present one, total exports grew by 3.4 per cent between January and May, of the nine billion increase in current value, a full six billion is attributable to gold bullion destined for Switzerland, and once this is factored out, the progress made by ‘Made in Italy’ products is significantly scaled back. This is further highlighted by the decline in overseas sales in 2026 for food, fashion and furniture, whilst machinery and transport equipment (excluding cars) remain stagnant. Elsewhere in Europe, the signs are mixed. Whilst French industrial production in June fell slightly (-0.1 per cent month-on-month, -1.1 per cent for manufacturing alone), there is a notable improvement in Germany. With Berlin recording second-quarter GDP growth in line with Italia’s performance, whilst June saw manufacturing orders rise more than expected, particularly from the domestic market: the overall increase was 3.1 per cent for the month and 6.5 per cent year-on-year, with machinery posting double-digit growth. In terms of production, the automotive sector in Germany remains in the balance, with domestic output down by three percentage points in the first half of the year despite a positive June. Total production between January and June in Berlin nevertheless stood at 2.1 million units, whilst in Italia – where volumes have also risen by 26 per cent compared with last year’s lows (though by only 4.5 per cent in June) – 167,000 cars were produced.

In detail

In June 2026, the seasonally adjusted industrial production index is estimated to have fallen by 1.0% compared with May. On average for the second quarter, production levels rose by 0.4% compared with the first quarter of 2026.

The seasonally adjusted monthly index rose on a month-on-month basis only for energy (+0.8 per cent), whilst it fell for consumer goods (-0.7 per cent), intermediate goods (-0.9 per cent) and capital goods (-2.1 per cent). Adjusted for calendar effects, in June 2026 the overall index fell by 0.6% year-on-year (there were 21 working days compared with 20 in June 2025). Consumer goods (-3.2%) and intermediate goods (-1.2%) showed a decline. Conversely, year-on-year growth was observed for capital goods (+0.6%) and, to a greater extent, for energy (+1.7%). The sectors of economic activity recording the highest year-on-year increases are the manufacture of computers, electronic and optical products, electro-medical equipment, measuring instruments and watches (+4.5%), the manufacture of transport equipment (+3.2 per cent) and the supply of electricity, gas, steam and air (+2.3 per cent). The largest declines were observed in the textile, clothing, leather and accessories industries (-7.1 per cent), in other manufacturing industries, and the repair and installation of machinery and equipment (-3.6 per cent), and in the manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. (-2.3%).