Inflation: Istat revises it downwards but shopping trolley prices rise

In May 2025, the national consumer price index for the entire collectivity (NIC), before tobacco products, recorded a decrease of 0.1% on a monthly basis and an increase of 1.6% on an annual basis (from +1.9% in the previous month); the preliminary estimate was +1.7%. This is what Istat emphasises in its report on consumer prices (final data) for May. The prices of food, home and personal care, the so-called "shopping cart", however, are accelerating from +2.6% to +2.7%, while those of products with high frequency of purchase decelerate (from +1.6% to +1.5%).

In May 2025, therefore, inflation fell to 1.6% from 1.9% in April. The slowdown was affected above all by the marked deceleration in the prices of regulated Energies (+29.3% from +31.7% in April) and the accentuation of the decline in those of non-regulated (-4.3% from -3.4%); the prices of unprocessed Food (+3.5% from +4.2%) and those of some types of services also slowed. On the other hand, inflation was supported by an acceleration in the prices of processed food (+2.7% from +2.2%), which was reflected in the "shopping trolley" (+2.7% from +2.6%).

In May core inflation fell to +1.9%, from +2.1% in April.

The inflation assumption for 2025 is +1.3% for the overall index and +1.6% for the core component.