Istat, inflation slows down again in December, estimated 0.6% p.a.
Shopping trolley in December drops slightly year-on-year, from +5.4% to +5.3%
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Key points
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In December, inflation in Italy increased by 0.2% on a monthly basis and by 0.6% on an annual basis (it had been 0.7% in November). This was announced by Istat in its preliminary estimates of the national consumer price index, before tobacco. On average, consumer prices in 2023 will grow by 5.7 %, a sharp slowdown from 8.1 % in 2022. This is due to the end of price tensions for energy goods, which rise by 1.2% compared to the +50.9% surge in 2022. Net of the volatile components of energy and fresh food (so-called 'core inflation'), consumer prices grow by 5.1% (+3.8% in the previous year) and net of energy alone by 5.3% (+4.1% in 2022). Based on preliminary estimates, the inflation drag to 2024 is +0.1%.
Energy goods prices fall, food sector accelerates
ISTAT points out that the tendential slowdown in inflation is mainly due to the prices of regulated energy goods (which went from -34.9% to -41.7%), recreational, cultural and personal care services (from +4.6% to +3.6%) and processed food goods (from +5.8% to +5.0%). On the other hand, inflationary dynamics were supported by the easing of the fall in prices of unregulated energy (from -22.5% to -21.1%) and the acceleration of those of unprocessed food (from +5.6% to +7%). In general, prices in the food sector show an acceleration in average annual growth (+9.8%, from +8.8% in 2022), despite the softening of their trend dynamics (from +5.4% to +5.3%), which was evident in the second half of the year, as well as in high-frequency products (from +4.6% in November to +4.4%).
Transports up +1.4% in December
In December, core inflation, net of energy and fresh food, decelerated from +3.6% to +3.1% and inflation net of energy goods alone from +3.6% to +3.4%. The cyclical increase in the overall index is mostly due to growth in the prices of services related to transport (+1.4% also due to seasonal factors), unprocessed foodstuffs (+0.7%) and durable and non-durable goods (both +0.5%). Increases only partly - Istat notes - offset by the reduction in energy prices, both regulated (-3.5%) and unregulated (-2.1%).
HICP increases by 0.5% year-on-year
According to preliminary estimates, the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) increased by 0.2% on a monthly basis and by 0.5% on an annual basis (from +0.6% in November). In 2023 the average annual change in the index is +5.9% (+8.7% in 2022).
