Istat: population set to fall by 4 million by 2050, but labour force participation is rising
The rise in labour force participation rates (+4.3 percentage points over the next 25 years) will partly offset the decline in the resident population
Key points
The Italian population will continue to decline and age at least until 2080. According to the latest forecasts from Istat (“Forecasts for the resident population, households and the labour force”), by 2050 the resident population will fall to 55 million (it stood at 58.9 million at the start of 2025), whilst by 2080 the total will stand at 45.8 million people – over 13 million fewer than in 2025. Furthermore, the Italian population will become increasingly older: the proportion of people of working age (aged 15 to 64) will fall further, from 63.4 per cent recorded on 1 January 2025 to 55.3 per cent in 2050. However, rising labour force participation rates will partly offset the effects of the population decline.
Falling resident numbers
According to the Istat report, the sharp decline in the resident population ‘is virtually a foregone conclusion: even in the medium term, none of the scenarios considered suggests a return to current population levels, and, in the long term, the decline is confirmed across all possible demographic trends’.
The decline in population will become increasingly pronounced as the years go by. Whilst, in the short term (2025–2030), the decline will be more moderate, with an average annual rate of change of -0.1 per cent, in the medium term (2030–2050) the decline is set to become more pronounced, with an average annual rate of -0.3 per cent. Finally, in the long term (2050–2080), the decline will accelerate further, at an average annual rate of -0.6 per cent.
Regional differences
However, this trend will not be uniform across the entire peninsula. In the short term, the North actually shows a tendency towards growth, rising from 27.5 million residents in 2025 to 27.7 million in 2030. From this date onwards, the trend will reverse and the population will fall to 27.2 million in 2050 and to 24.2 million in 2080. Despite the overall decline in the number of residents, the North will nevertheless maintain a relatively more favourable trend compared with the rest of the country.
Turning our attention to Central Italia, however, we can see a slight decline even in the short term. Between 2025 and 2030, the population will fall by 40,000. Between 2030 and 2050, the decline will accelerate and the number of residents will reach 11 million. In the long term, the figure will fall to as low as 9.3 million.
