Istat: 2024 GDP and deficit estimates unchanged, debt falling. 2023 growth revised upwards: from +0.7% to 1%
Last year's growth was 0.7 per cent and the deficit/GDP at -3.4 per cent (-7.2 per cent in 2023)
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ISTAT leaves the estimate for 2024 GDP growth unchanged at 0.7% and that for the deficit at -3.4%. On the other hand, the debt estimate fell slightly from the 135.3% forecast in March to 134.9%. This was announced by the Institute for Statistics in the economic and national accounts for 2024.
The statistics institute has revised upwards the estimate of the primary balance (net borrowing minus interest expenditure) in the Italian 2024 accounts: compared to the +0.4% forecast in March, it rises to +0.5% of GDP (it was -3.5% in 2023). Interest expenditure increased by 10.1% (it was -4.7% in 2023).
In 2024, the overall tax burden (amount of direct, indirect, capital account and social security taxes as a ratio of GDP) was found to be on the rise and amounted to 42.5% (it was 41.2% in 2023), as a result of an increase in tax and social security revenues (5.8%) that was higher than that of GDP at current prices (+2.7%). The March estimate (42.6%) was thus revised downwards. The tax burden increased by more than one percentage point to the values recorded in 202020-2021.
GDP 2023: rising to 1% from 0.7%
Istat has also revised upwards its estimate for GDP in 2023: from the 0.7% forecast last March, on the basis of the new data it rises to 1%, a positive revision of 0.3 percentage points. The institute explains that there was a change in the growth rates of the components: household consumption increased to 0.5% from 0.3% in the previous edition and general government consumption to 1.1% (from +0.6% in the previous version). The investment growth rate was 10.1% (+9.0% in the March estimate). The new value added estimates resulted in significant adjustments for some sectors in 2023: upwards for construction (+4.5 percentage points), industry in the narrow sense (+0.1 points) and professional activities (+2.0 points) and downwards for financial and insurance activities (-3.6 points), information and communication services (-1.7 points) and trade, transport and storage, accommodation and food services (-1.9 points).
Mef: satisfaction for GDP 2023 at 1%
"The MEF takes note of the data published today by Istat and expresses its satisfaction, in particular, with the growth at 1% in 2023 instead of the previous estimate set at 0.7% for the same period".
