Giorgetti: 'Controls on Superbonus, I hope to update estimates in September. We do not exclude the activation of the national clause'

The achievement of the 3 per cent deficit/GDP target "would have allowed a European comparison to be opened in order to highlight the asymmetry of the rules of the new economic governance regarding the exit from the excessive deficit procedure. Incidentally,' Giorgetti continued, 'the government has never indicated deficit targets below 3 per cent such as to prefigure autonomously and mechanically the exit from the procedure.The document shows a consistent improvement in the primary surplus, which in 2025 stands at 0.8 per cent of GDP (+0.3 percentage points compared to 2024). This figure indicates that, net of interest expenditure, the State has returned to generating a surplus, an essential element for medium-term debt sustainability. At the same time, interest expenditure has remained stable".

The current framework, stressed the head of the Mef, 'requires realism: we are not faced with dynamics determined by the choices of individual European governments, but with external shocks that affect all advanced economies across the board. For a country like Italia, which is strongly integrated in international trade and dependent on energy stability, this requires a clear line: strengthen the resilience of the production system, consolidate the credibility of public finance, and maintain the ability to protect families and businesses from the more destabilising effects of shocks originating outside our borders'.

"Every decision that will be taken, consistent with the objective of guaranteeing the sustainability of the debt in the medium-long term, will not be able to entail a renunciation of the primary surplus that we have painstakingly reconstituted and that represents an important sign of the action that has characterised the Government in safeguarding public accounts," Giorgetti recalled. "In a moment of financial instability, we have protected three things: the order of the accounts, the first guarantee of a country; the savings of Italians, our most precious capital; the next generations, avoiding having today's choices affect them. Financial stability is the precondition for growth in Italia and Europe. Italia is on this line. And it intends to stay there,' he added.

"In this phase, where the timeliness of action cannot disregard prudence, it seems opportune that the dialogue with other countries and with the European institutions should lead to the achievement of a broad consensus in evaluating the use of instruments that are more adequate to deal with the effects of the war in the Middle East. We have formulated, and we intend to continue to do so, pragmatic proposals that take into account the characteristics and interests of the different member states and that should also lead the European institutions to evaluate an expansion of the same instruments that they have prepared, also in continuity with the Council communications of 19 March 2025 on coordinated initiatives to activate national clauses and defence spending".

With regard to the outcome of the in-depth investigations carried out on the Superbonus, Giorgetti explained that 'it has been partially incorporated into the estimates released by Istat with the communication of 3 April. The continuation of the monitoring activities, which will also benefit from the recent establishment of a specific inter-institutional working group, will make it possible to have an even more complete and up-to-date information picture, which I hope can be considered in the September update of the estimates, in the same way as other items for which in-depth studies are underway with Istat'. Giorgetti emphasised that 'the estimated value of 3.1% (rectius 3.07) indicated in the Dfp cannot, however, call into question the result of the careful monitoring and control of expenditure, which has led to a substantial alignment of the preliminary final data with the forecasts, net of the effects attributable to the Superbonus'.

"In light of the possibility of sending the communication of exercising the option between contribution and transfer of credit in the field of building bonuses also after the end of the 2025 financial year, and more precisely on 16 March," said the minister, "there has been an exceptionally strong growth in options in the first months of this year: the communications of the quarter alone amounted to approximately 6 billion. For these communications, the Agenzia delle Entrate, in close cooperation with the departments of the Ministry of the Economy and the Guardia di Finanza, detected a high concentration of anomalies, to an extent decidedly higher than in recent years,' the minister explained, adding that 'in the light of the verifications, the figure used by Istat must be read for what it is, an estimate inevitably influenced by the time frame in which it was defined. In fact, with the passing of the months and, in particular, from March onwards, the estimation data used have been progressively supplemented by analytical verification data on the value of the credits, which has been able to take into account the seizure of numerous credits connected to alleged frauds".

After the speech, Giorgetti answered some questions. 'We must bring the Italian situation into reality,' he said. 'We have a public debt that must be guaranteed in its sustainability. This country must inspire confidence. The conduct of public finance cannot be foolish. After that, if someone has bombastic ideas, they can experiment'.

'I would consider it quite embarrassing to ask for a derogation from the Pact to finance defence spending and not for spending for the benefit of households and businesses on energy,' the economics minister emphasised. 'And I do not feel like proposing that,' he said.

Finally, a passage on the increase in fuel costs, following the Iranian crisis. "On excise duties, we are considering," said President Meloni, "waiting for what may be the evolution of the state of the art at the European level, to go beyond 1 May and a different treatment based on the increases that diesel petrol has had

The validation process of the public finance accounts produced by the Istat by the EU institutions "follows modalities and timing dictated by European regulations". This was made clear by the president of the central institute of statistics Francesco Maria Chelli, during the second day of hearings at the Chamber of Deputies on the public finance document (Dfp), which - in addition to the minister of the economy - saw representatives of the Cnel, Corte dei Conti, Banca d'Italia and Upb in the joint budget commissions. The recommendation that emerges is one of caution in managing accounts in an international context that makes it very difficult to make forecasts.

The words of Istat's number one come after days of political controversy over the setting of Italy's deficit at 3.1%, which prevented Italy from exiting the EU infringement procedure early. "The paradox," the premier Giorgia Meloni had attacked on 22 April, "is that, for many years now, the first Istat data underestimate the actual GDP, only to revise it upwards.

Chelli pointed out that the verification of public finance accounts is carried out every six months (by 1 April and 1 October each year) 'under the technical coordination of Eurostat. In this context, ISTAT, while maintaining an autonomous and independent role as the body ultimately responsible for the quality of the data produced, also performs a coordination and synthesis function between the various national institutions involved, in various capacities, in the production of public finance data (such as the Bank of Italia and the Ministry of Economy and Finance), ensuring consistency between the various national information sources'.

As for forecasts on economic trends, Chelli said, "at this time, as recognised by all the main international organisations and underlined in the Dfp itself, it is complex to formulate hypotheses on the evolution of global scenarios and the reactions of economic operators". For the president of Istat, "since the beginning of the conflict in the Middle East on 28 February, the international economic scenario has worsened and uncertainty has increased further," he pointed out.

In the hearing, the Istat president spoke of the 'economic information available for the first months of 2026, the information picture of which is still being finalised': 'They seem to confirm,' he said, 'a less positive dynamic for the Italian economy compared to what was observed in the last quarter'. The last three months of 2025 had closed with GDP growth of 0.3 per cent. Indications on the trend in the first quarter of this year will come from the preliminary GDP estimate that Istat will release on Thursday, 30 April.

At the hearing on the Dfp, the president of the Cnel Renato Brunetta pointed out that 'the crisis that has just begun, and which we all hope will end very soon, would at best cost Italia about six months of growth'. The deviations in GDP, the former Minister of the Public Administration explained, are 'all in all modest compared to what could be expected before the shock: one decimal of growth less in 2026, two in 2027 and one in 2028. A total of four tenths'. For Brunetta, this is 'almost nothing compared to what happened with the great financial crisis, the sovereign debt crisis and the pandemic, which cost Italia many percentage points of reduction in GDP: 6.3 points, 4.9 and 8.9 respectively'.

However, Brunetta warned, 'it is attractive but totally inadvisable to go it alone'. During the hearing, the president of the Cnel continued, 'without waiting for any European reprimands, it would be the financial markets that would punish us with higher rates and higher public expenditure for interest, with all the negative consequences that we know well'

For Brunetta, therefore, 'it is Europe as a whole that must prepare a plan B, i.e. a plan to deal with the consequences of the prolongation of the Persian Gulf crisis'. In terms of method, he pointed out, 'we need an agreed strategy at European level. The possibility that a country can go it alone is certainly appealing, but unfortunately it is negated by past experience and present conditions'.

In the hearings also came the indications of the Court of Auditors: if the economic picture worsens, it will be necessary to 'support the disposable incomes of households and the liquidity of businesses even if the need to comply with European parameters leaves reduced fiscal space. This confirms the need, on the one hand, to maintain control over public accounts, and, on the other, to ensure a more careful selection of the measures to be launched in order to counter the effects of the increase in the price of energy raw materials and, consequently, to redefine priorities with ever greater attention to the cost-effectiveness assessment that must guide the Government's action in defining the measures to be implemented'.

In addition, 'the restriction of budgetary margins therefore implies a strict prioritisation of expenditure, including the scheduling of certain sectoral increases (such as those for defence)'.

A strong call for expenditure management also comes from the Bank of Italia. "It will be crucial to carefully monitor expenditure trends, bearing in mind that a more pronounced price growth than expected would make it even more difficult to respect the planned consolidation path," it was said at the hearing. 'Italy's budgetary policy will be called upon to fulfil the international defence commitments it has signed up to and to address the need to mitigate the impact of the energy crisis on households and businesses. The response to the energy shock - is the recommendation of Via Nazionale -. should be limited to targeted interventions of limited size and duration'.

Bankitalia also points out that 'the limited margins available derive, even more than from the rules of European governance, from the need to put debt in relation to output on a downward path. According to the Dfp's trend framework, this would happen from 2027. This would be a positive signal of great importance, also for the confidence of savers and for the assessment of our country in the financial markets,' said the head of the Economy and Statistics Department of the Bank of Italia, Andrea Brandolini.

The international context 'exposed to very high risks makes macroeconomic forecasts for our country susceptible to revisions in the event of new shocks, even within a short period of time' was the premise of the President of the Parliamentary Budget Office Lilia Cavallari. 'Given this context, the government's approach to economic policy planning must be more cautious than ever, so as to be able to cope with adverse developments'.

Inflation from energy shocks will be heaviest for households with the lowest expenditure is the forecast of the UPB calculating that in 2026 it could be 0.5 points higher than the average, reaching 4 per cent against a rate of 3.1 per cent felt instead by households at the opposite end of the five quintile scale of spending capacity. According to the Parliamentary Budget Office, therefore, 'targeted mitigation interventions on the most exposed segments of the population appear more effective than generalised price measures, at the same cost to public finance'.