Conjuncture

Production +2.8%, driven by food and pharmaceuticals

Year-on-year growth of 1.5 %. Textiles-clothing and transport equipment down

by Luca Orlando

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

Industry recovered from the August slump to grow 2.8% month-on-month in September. Progress was also visible on an annual basis, with a 1.5% increase.

Average pushed upwards in particular by food (+9.2%) and pharmaceuticals, confirming the positive trend in these sectors, which has been visible for some time.

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In contrast to the recent past, however, growth also extends to other sectors. Such as electronics, machinery, metallurgy.At the bottom of the list, the negative momentum is confirmed for textiles-clothing, down 4.4%, just as negative (-2.1%) remains transport equipment.With September's growth, the balance for the first nine months of the year improves, which remains negative but only by seven decimals (in the first eight months the balance was -1%)

The underlying picture, net of the monthly ups and downs, is still not brilliant, as witnessed by the estimates for the whole of 2025 just released by Intesa Sanpaolo and Prometeia, with current revenues at the pole (an annual progress of 0.1%, with the total at 1120 billion) and a drop of one point at constant values, taking prices into account.Lombardy itself, Italy's leading manufacturing region, revealed more than one difficulty in the latest Bank of Italy survey: in fact, more companies reported a drop in turnover in the first nine months of the year than those that reported an increase.

With reference to expectations for the next six months, opinions of sales stability prevail, both on the domestic and foreign markets. This is to be expected at a time when even the incoming boost from exports is limited. The 2.6% growth in the first eight months of the year, with total sales at 423 billion lire, is in fact strongly influenced by the pharmaceutical industry's run (+35% to 46 billion lire), without which the balance sheet (pending September's European data, due on Friday 14) would be in the red. With widespread reductions in almost all sectors, including machinery and rubber-plastics, motor vehicles and electrical equipment, chemicals and textiles-clothing, wood-paper and furniture.

Demand that at the moment seems to be holding up in our main outlet market, Germany, which sees imports of Made in Italy up two points between January and August. However, the Berlin economy is far from a sustained recovery, as shown by the latest data.

While production grew by 1.3% in September compared to the previous month, in the annual comparison there was still a drop of one point, just as the Purchasing Managers' Index remained below par, at 49.6 in October. Also in the red in October was German car production, down 4% to 354,000 units, bringing the balance for the first 10 months of the year almost to a breakeven (+1%), with car output at 3.5 million.

In detail

In September 2025, Istat estimates that the seasonally adjusted index of industrial production increased by 2.8% compared to August. In the average of the third quarter, the production level decreased by 0.5 % compared to the previous three months.

The monthly seasonally adjusted index shows economic increases in all main industry groupings: a larger change characterises energy (+5.4%), while the increases for capital goods (+1.4%), intermediate goods (+1.3%) and consumer goods (+1.0%) are more limited.

Adjusted for calendar effects, the overall index increased in September 2025 by 1.5% in trend terms (there were 22 calendar working days compared to 21 in September 2024). The positive trend is spread across all segments: growth in consumer goods (+2.3%), intermediate goods (+1.3%) and to a lesser extent capital goods (+0.9%) and energy (+0.6%).

The sectors of economic activity registering the largest year-on-year increases are the manufacture of computers and electronics products (+12.3%), the food, beverages and tobacco industries (+9.2%) and the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations (+3.8%). The largest declines were in the textile, clothing, leather and accessories industries (-4.4%), the wood, paper and printing industry (-4.1%) and the manufacture of chemical products (-4.0%).

According to the National Institute of Statistics, in September the seasonally adjusted index of industrial production recorded a cyclical increase, completely recovering the fall in August. The positive monthly trend is widespread in all the main sectors. However, the overall economic trend was negative in the average of the third quarter.

Also in trend terms, an increase in the calendar-adjusted index was observed in September, with positive momentum spread across all major industry groupings.

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