Sustainability

Funding: in Italia, 34 per cent goes to SMEs exposed to high climate risk

Heatwaves and heat-related stress remain the most significant factors. This is according to the Crif Observatory

 ANSA

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

The whole of Europe is currently grappling with heatwaves that are causing temperatures to soar, in some cases exceeding 40 degrees. This extreme situation is having significant consequences. Alongside the considerable discomfort caused to people, there are also enormous economic challenges for businesses.

More than a third (34.3 per cent) of Italian small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that have received funding are classified as ‘belonging to the highest risk categories’: this quote is taken from the findings of the ESG Outlook 2026, Crif’s sustainability observatory, now in its fourth edition; the risk in question is ‘physical’ risk caused precisely by climate change. We are therefore talking about floods, water stress, heatwaves and other similar phenomena that are devastating large areas.

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The analysis carried out by the analysts covered 315,000 SMEs and 600 large Italian companies and relates to 2025.

The Crif methodology

Crif, in collaboration with Risk Engineering and Development (Red), has considered 18 risk factors across three dimensions: geographical hazard, vulnerability and exposure. Specifically, ‘vulnerability’ refers to the estimated economic impact that the occurrence of a particular natural event may have on a business, depending on the economic sector in which it operates; ‘exposure’, on the other hand, refers to the value of the company’s assets and output that may be adversely affected by natural events.

The forecasts then generate a score ranging from 1 (low risk) to 5 (very high risk).

GLI EFFETTI DEL CLIMA SUI PRESTITI ALLE AZIENDE

Distribuzione dello score di rischio fisico per quota di finanziamenti erogati a PMI. Dati in %

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Loans

Returning to the correlation between financing and physical risk, the report highlights that, compared with 2024, there has been a slight increase in the percentage of SMEs classified in the highest risk categories: for high physical risk, in 2025, the percentage stood at 28 per cent, compared with 27.7 per cent the previous year; the same applies to the ‘very high’ category, with 6.3 per cent compared with the 5.7 per cent recorded in 2024.

Adding the two percentages together therefore gives a total of 34.3 per cent of loans granted to SMEs classified as being in high physical risk categories.

“The physical risks associated with extreme natural events are no longer a future scenario but a present, measurable factor that is becoming increasingly significant in credit and investment decisions,” explained Marco Macellari, CEO of Crif Synergy Ratings. “With this in mind, Crif has developed highly granular analytical tools specifically to enable banks and businesses to assess and manage this exposure in an informed and structured manner.”

Key risks

The Crif analysis also provides a ranking of physical risks. ‘Among the 18 risk factors considered in the analysis, in terms of exposure to at least a “moderate” risk (Pear – Potential Exposure At Risk) – the document states – stress caused by high temperatures and heatwaves continue to be the most significant factors.’

And what about the highest physical risks? ‘With regard to exposure to a risk classified as at least “high” (Pesar – Potential Exposure Seriously At Risk) – as explained in the Crif report – earthquakes remain the factor with the highest values, remaining stable over time as they are independent of climatic variations. The most significant changes compared with the previous year (2024) relate to floods and landslides, in line with the updating of the respective estimation models.”

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Regions

Finally, there is also a geographical breakdown of the average physical risk by region. Sicily, Calabria and Emilia-Romagna top the rankings with the highest levels of risk, whilst Piedmont, Molise, Lombardy and Tuscany have lower levels.

“Sustainability is no longer a secondary consideration,” concludes Macellari, “but a structural driver for risk management and the creation of long-term value.”

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