Housing: Italia needs 151,000 homes a year – Rome and Milan have the highest demand

A country with more homes than households, yet by no means immune to the housing crisis, which has once again taken centre stage in the European debate. In Italia, there are over 35.6 million homes and fewer than 26 million households. Yet, taking into account the homes that become vacant each year and can return to the market, the country would need around 151,000 new homes a year, mostly in the major cities. Even looking ahead, the outlook improves only slightly: by 2040, the national demand could fall to 73,000 units, but the pressure would remain concentrated in the metropolitan areas of central and northern Italy. The figures come from the report ‘Abitare l’Italia di domani’ (Living in the Italy of Tomorrow), produced by the Einaudi Centre for Assonime and Confindustria Assoimmobiliare, which will be presented today in Rome. According to the study’s calculations, whilst demand last year stood at around one million homes, the actual available supply stands at 862,000. And new-builds are not enough to bridge the gap: in 2024, just over 55,000 homes were granted planning permission. 

The crux of the matter is not just how many, but above all where. Demand is not, in fact, distributed evenly: the North has a shortfall of around 140,000 homes a year, whilst the Centre has a shortfall of 62,000. The South, by contrast, has a surplus of 51,000 re-usable homes. The widest gap is in the area known as the ‘Metropolitan North’, with 100,000 homes (8.1 per 1,000 inhabitants), followed by the Metropolitan Centre with 45,000. The Peripheral South, by contrast, has 76,000 more homes than are needed. Narrowing the scope of the study to individual cities, Rome has the highest demand in absolute terms: 39,300 homes per year. This is followed by Milan (34,600), Turin (15,300), Bologna (13,100) and Florence (10,700). In relation to population, Bologna is under the greatest pressure, with 12.8 homes short per thousand inhabitants, ahead of Florence (10.8) and Milan (10.6). A projection to 2040 suggests Rome’s shortfall would fall to 26,800 and Milan’s to 20,100. In the South, the shortfalls are low, but not because the market functions better. Naples, with a shortfall of 3,000 homes, loses around 15,000 residents a year due to internal migration.

The paradox of a country with more homes than households is best explained by looking at the housing stock, where the figures on empty or unused homes need to be interpreted through certain analytical filters. There are around 9.5 million homes that are empty or occupied by non-residents, and the report cites an estimate of 8.5 million ‘dormant homes’, but not all of them are usable or can be brought back into use: factors such as age, energy efficiency rating and location are important. For example, of the 241,000 homes vacated each year following a death, the study considers only 144,000 to be reusable. And the geographical divide is stark: a home vacated by an elderly person has a 55 per cent chance of returning to the market in metropolitan northern areas, compared with just 20 per cent in peripheral southern areas. ‘The polarisation highlighted by the study refutes the narrative that there is already enough unused housing stock to meet the population’s needs,’ explains Davide Albertini Petroni, president of Confindustria Assoimmobiliare. ‘ ‘It is true that there is a significant number of unused homes in Italia, but in most cases this housing stock is not located where it is actually needed and does not have the structural characteristics required today.’

Furthermore, the public housing supply is not enough to fill the gap. There are currently 1.5 million households living in severe housing hardship, and those with an income below 60 per cent of the median spend almost 29 per cent of their income on housing costs – around two and a half times the proportion observed for the rest of the population. Currently, there are around 797,000 social housing units managed by the Ater, accounting for 2.3 per cent of the housing stock, and 61,300 remain vacant because they require renovation: the government’s ‘Piano Casa’ aims to refurbish around 60,000 of these. By European standards, social housing in Italia accounts for between 2 and 4 per cent of the housing stock, compared with 34 per cent in the Netherlands and 14 per cent in France. In Rome, in 2024, fewer than 90 homes were made available for nearly 18,000 households on the waiting list.

Furthermore, the housing crisis no longer affects only the most vulnerable groups, but now also impacts the urban middle class. “The difficulty in accessing affordable housing does not only affect the most vulnerable groups, but is increasingly having an impact on employment opportunities, people’s mobility and the competitiveness of local areas,” points out Stefano Firpo, Director-General of Assonime.