Italian companies and the response in the workplace
Amidst wars, energy crises and apocalyptic scenarios surrounding artificial intelligence, it is not easy to be optimistic about the future of Italian businesses and the labour market. Yet, by making a conscious effort to think clearly – without resorting to triumphalism – we can arrive at a broader perspective and less gloomy conclusions. The figures released in recent days by ISTAT paint a largely unchanged picture: the number of people in employment is statistically unchanged compared with July (-5,000), the number of unemployed has risen slightly, and the number of economically inactive has fallen. The number of people in employment in July has been revised downwards from 24.37 to 24.35 million (a decrease of around 20,000), whilst the estimate for the number of unemployed has been revised upwards by around 100,000 and that for the economically inactive downwards by around 40,000. This results in an unemployment rate of 6.2 per cent (up from 5.8 per cent in the previous estimate) and an inactivity rate of 32.7 per cent (down from 32.8 per cent). The employment rate stands at 63 per cent, down slightly from the 63.2 per cent initially reported but still at an all-time high.
It is worth bearing in mind that monthly figures are, by their very nature, provisional and subject to revision, and that interpreting short-term trends requires caution. A comparison of trends over time is more informative, as it paints a picture of a dynamic labour market.
Over the past twelve months, the number of people in employment has risen by 291,000. The breakdown of this growth is a key factor: there was an increase of 370,000 permanent positions, a fall of 157,000 fixed-term contracts and, over the same period, the number of unemployed rose by 129,000 whilst the number of economically inactive fell by 381,000.
The same pattern emerges from a comparison between the June–August quarter and the previous one: +40,000 in employment, +123,000 unemployed, -164,000 economically inactive – which means that a growing proportion of people who were outside the labour market are returning to actively seek work. Labour force participation is therefore rising, as is the number of people in work and, amongst them, the number of those on permanent contracts.
The Italian economy is certainly not experiencing a period of vigorous growth. However, the ability to maintain record levels of employment, against a backdrop of significant pressure on costs and financing conditions, is by no means a given; rather, it is the result of a variety of factors relating to the institutional and economic environment in which businesses make their decisions.
